And here, Moscow lacks the advantage that the United States holds in the war: It cannot force the battle abroad.
It sounds like Russia was successful in averting an attack which would dwarf Beslan. Up to 700 terrorists were expected to take over the entire city, and use it as a base for attacks against targets deeper in Russia. Unbelievable. Update from Stratfor:
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1111 GMT -- RUSSIA -- Russian authorities said Oct. 14 they had nearly eliminated the rebel group that attacked Nalchik, capital of the Kabardino-Balkaria region, but that one small group of militants remained in a prison administration building. Security forces said they are concentrating on preventing any of the guerrillas from escaping. At least 108 people, including 72 attackers, were killed in the fighting, according to a tally by officials, news reports and an Associated Press reporter. Among the dead are 24 law enforcement officers and 12 civilians, Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev told the RIA-Novosti news agency. Nurgaliyev said 31 rebels were detained.
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Geopolitical Diary: Friday, Oct. 14, 2005
Russia's war against Islamist militants resurged into public view on Thursday in a dramatic series of events in Nalchik, the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria republic in the North Caucasus.
About 100 militants were involved in a series of coordinated attacks against government and civilian targets, and Russian government forces -- in a departure from past tactics -- moved in swiftly to join the battle. At least 61 militants were killed and 17 taken prisoner; about 15 local police and soldiers, along with 20 civilians, died as well. Russian army reinforcements formed a double ring around the city, while some of the remaining attackers were attempting to break through to escape into the mountains late on Thursday. Meanwhile, two small groups holding several hostages were under siege in two locations within the city.
Though the investigation into events is only in the earliest stages, a few things are easily apparent. First, the armed conflict in Russia is no longer merely a Russo-Chechen war. It is now a wider jihadist war in which control of the North Caucasus and other Muslim-dominated regions are at stake. Second, the Russians -- who have appeared to be almost paralyzed by fear and caution in past incidents, such as the 2004 Beslan school hostage crisis -- have adopted a rapid reaction philosophy. In this case, they moved swiftly to defend major targets, nip the attacks in the bud and lock down the city. However, it also is obvious that the Islamist militants, who have not fared well in their war against Russia since early this year, still possess formidable capabilities. In fact, there is evidence that Thursday's attacks might have been only a small taste of a much more grandiose plot hatched by Chechen rebel leader Shamil Basayev. All things considered, additional terrorist-style attacks are likely in the near future.
We have seen the Wahhabi-led militant movement expanding from Chechnya to other parts of Russia -- with attacks far afield intensifying this year, as public support for the jihadists began to decline in war-weary Chechnya. The assaults in Kabardino-Balkaria are part of this strategy of expanding the war territorially.
Piecing together accounts from Russian military contacts and other sources, there is reason to believe that Thursday's attacks were conducted prematurely -- with militants who had been involved in plans for a much larger chain of events forced to act before Russian intelligence was able to pre-empt the entire plot. Intelligence sources learned, after the fact, that Basayev and two unnamed Saudi commanders had slipped into Kabardino-Balkaria several days ago to finalize plans for this larger attack with Anzor Astemirov and Ilyaz Gerchikhayev, the commanders of a local Islamist militant group known as Yarmuk Jamaat. Given that there were few local security units in town, the plan apparently was to capture and hold Nalchik and its airport; meanwhile, several aircraft were to have been loaded with hundreds of kilograms of explosives and their captured crews forced to fly into high-profile targets elsewhere in Russia. Exactly what these targets were is not yet known.
Local media, citing a Russian Federal Security source, reported that the plan included flying a captured military aircraft into a VIP target in Moscow -- something the Russian government has neither confirmed nor denied. The air defense checkpoints around Moscow are equipped with a friend-or-foe identification system, which means that such a plane would have had good chances of getting past security blocks. Meanwhile, sources say, the militants had a back-up plan that involved mining important government buildings and taking hostages -- including at schools and kindergartens, as seen in Beslan last year, that were attended mainly by ethnic Russian children.
The grand attack reportedly was to have taken place around Oct. 17. However, with tips from local residents, Russian security services got wind of the preparations and identified the hideouts of Islamist commanders.
The Russians struck first: On Saturday, Oct. 8, two Wahhabist militants were arrested and confessed to preparing a terrorist-style attack at Nalchik airport. Two days later, the Russians confiscated a sizeable cache of explosives in Nalchik -- including about 600 kg of explosives wired as bombs -- and weapons. And early on Thursday, special forces raided the hideout of the chief would-be attackers, killing Astemirov and two associates, while seven others escaped after a fight.
In light of all these events, the organizers of the plot faced a choice: Either to abort all their plans and risk losing capabilities in Kabardino-Balkaria, after it became clear that they had been outed by the Russians -- or launch a premature attack with only about 100 fighters already in place, rather than the full strength of 700 anticipated by Oct. 17.
Thus, Thursday's violence began. The largest group of militants rushed to the airport to capture aircraft and personnel; unconfirmed reports say Basayev personally headed this effort. This might make sense, since the entire plan was meant to be a spectacular series of strikes, in Basayev's signature daring style, and other groups of militants were ordered to launch smaller attacks across the city mainly to distract Russian forces from the airport and disperse the response. However, Russian troops guarding the airport beat off the assault, with militants taking heavy casualties. According to some sources, Basayev -- reports of whose death are frequent and legendary -- reportedly was killed as well, but it is, of course, not confirmed that he was actually present.
Meanwhile, other bands of militants attacked several government security buildings, in a well-timed but poorly prepared series of feints. The attackers were mostly local Wahhabi militants, both Kabardins and Balkars, but also Chechens, Nogai, Ingush, several ethnic Russian Muslim converts and foreign jihadists, sources say. Local security forces -- police, border guards and security service officers -- put up stiff defenses, and the Russian army and special forces quickly gained the offensive and sealed the city.
Had the plot been carried out to its full extent, the implications for Russia's jihadist war would have been far-reaching -- particularly if the militants had succeeded in flying aircraft into buildings in Moscow and elsewhere. But this was not the case. Russia will now move decisively to hunt down remaining militants in Kabardino-Balkaria and likely will retain the upper hand in the conflict. However, the transnational jihadist movement can be expected to help organize new offensives and attacks in the Caucasus and other parts of Russia.
And here, Moscow lacks the advantage that the United States holds in the war: It cannot force the battle abroad. The Russians are being forced to fight on their own territory, which entails extra security burdens and takes a heavier toll on the populace. Also, it is exceedingly difficult to give the command to use missiles, bombs and other heavy weapons against one's own country than when fighting in foreign lands -- which is why no heavy power was used in Nalchik on Thursday.
Ultimately, the jihadists fighting Russia appear determined to fight to the death. Moscow's challenge for some time to come will be to ensure that it is the jihadists, and not the Russian populace, who meet that fate. |
