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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ramsey Su who wrote (43523)10/14/2005 6:34:21 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
UCLA: Peak for Housing Said to Be Near
latimes.com



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (43523)10/14/2005 7:06:39 PM
From: steve from ihub  Respond to of 110194
 
from the local phoenix paper. listings up to 15000 from 6000 in april/may. expected to rise to 18000. houses used to sell over listing price 80%. now selling below listing 80%. pretty much a flip flop. i dont know how pricing has been affected as the article didnt say. i do see a lot more homes that were bought by investors with for rent signs out front



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (43523)10/14/2005 7:31:00 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
UCLA (Anderson School) has been negative on So Cal RE for several years, so they just repeated what they said last year. I believe the Fed is in tightening mode and they will keep tightening until something cracks. I expect this something to be RE.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (43523)10/15/2005 7:41:42 AM
From: dpl  Respond to of 110194
 
"The overall data points to a slow down in both price and market time. It is unclear whether the rise in interest rate recently is big enough to have an impact yet."

If you look at a graph of the FF and ADJ mortgage rates you will see this.

FF 1% ADJ 4%

FF 3% ADJ 4%

FF 3.75% ADJ 5%

In terms of the FF rate RE is just starting to feel an interest rate rise above 3%.This was in June and the slow down started in July.

Time will tell if it sticks.