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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (43542)	10/15/2005 8:02:19 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

More deflation: Citizens insurance in Florida is raising their rates up to 80% this year.

To: mishedlo who wrote (43542)	10/15/2005 10:05:20 AM
From: Claude Cormier	Respond to of 110194

Thank you.

To: mishedlo who wrote (43542)	10/15/2005 3:20:18 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dear Mish, Although, I am only half-trhough in my readings, I can say these are very interesting blogs articles. You have done a real good job at defending your points. Although I am not done yet, I can say that I agree with the ultimate outcome: the reinstatement of gold as a standard. I certainly agree with your definition of inflation and deflation. What I am not sure of is your suggestion that the CB's can no longer engineer more expansion of fiat money (I define fiat money as something that can be used to purchase things) mostly because there is already too much credit around and secondly because of external forces (wages arbitrage, globalization and all). Simply nationalizing the GSE's by the creation of new morgtgage dollars would be an enormous expansion of fiats?? Furtermore, these external forces can also play an inflationary role in the US. i.e. What is Japan, China and the world decide they now want hard assets in the US rather than US dollars. On debts, you are certainly familiar with the collapse of the Weimar Republic. Well they were burried under debt (mostly from the aftermath of WWI and the obligations put on them by the allies) and still managed to hyperinflate their currency. I do not know how they did it, but the 00's kept adding on their notes. Why can't the US chose that route beleiving that they can control high enough inflation to bail the system, without causing full destruction by hyperinflation. A lot of food for my thoughts on your blog. Thanks.

To: mishedlo who wrote (43542)	10/15/2005 8:10:16 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Interesting stuff, Mish. Personally I'm on the "deflation for G7" side of the spectrum, but not violently so. I've seen Wiemar mentioned a few times on this thread; while Wiemar did inflate like a MoFu, what ultimately solved their problem was a regime change to one that was willing to default on much of the debt. This would seem to support your basic scenario. I used to think a return to the gold standard was virtually impossible, but after further consideration I've slid over a bit into the "could happen - but won't make a damn bit of difference" camp. If there is a return to the gold standard, one thing is for sure: private individuals holding gold will be well and truly f'ed.