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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (2701)	10/15/2005 2:20:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

<At one of the first press conferences Tony Fauci said one reason they are concerned is it looks like the mortality rate for bird flu is roughly one third.> Where do they get the "one third"? From existing cases of course. But the existing cases have been treated with Tamiflu, which won't be available in a pandemic [other than to a very small proportion of people]. So, what matters is the "untreated" death rate, which seems more likely to be 70% than the hopeful wishful thinking "Spanish flu" levels. There is no law of nature which says we have to be lucky and get a moderate infection. Given the evidence of mortality so far, a better bet is what is actually happening. Mqurice