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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (2749)	10/16/2005 6:22:15 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

If the next pandemic is not H5N1, it will likely be something similar. I have said that I think there is a greater than 5% chance H5N1 will become a pandemic. Due to the limited production capacity if Tamiflu, I decided to buy some now. I already have Amantadine. I might buy some Relenza later. You can believe what you like and prepare accordingly. But please stop spreading half-truths and misinformation. Firstly, the nation of Finland has bought antiviral drugs for about 1.3 million people out of its 5.2 million population to treat first cases of infection and key emergency personnel. It has held a dry run of what to do in the event of an outbreak and allocated 20.8 million Euro ($24.93 million) to buy vaccine to inoculate its entire population. Its nice that we now believ the gulls died from a related flu and not H5N1, but Finland is far from your comfort zone. Secondly, while very few people have died from H5N1 in Indonesia, many more have contracted the disease. This follows the same 1918 flu pattern of rapidly fluctuating mortality as the virus mutates. When I bought antiviral drugs reports indicated a number of cases where transmission of H5N1 was likely human to human as no animal contact was demonstrated. I still believe this is likely. Thirdly, if animal to human transmission is possible, human to human transmission is possible. The concern is over the effectiveness of transmission, not whether it is possible - since everyone in the medical community knows that it is, unless they are uneducated in this area. Your cousin may require additional education. Fourthly, there are several candidate vaccines I know of, and probably more. One developed in Australia, one in the US and another in Europe. No one knows if they are effective in preventing H5N1 in humans. Finland has chosen to vaccinate with which ever shows the most promise and do so again later if a better vaccine is developed. Fifthly, not all H5N1 variants are resistant to Amantadine class antiviral drugs. So stop spreading lies that only neuramindase inhibitors like Relenza and Tamiflu have any effectiveness. Seventhly, not putting your fingers in your nose and face is the most effective preventative action yu can take. This is why governments around the world are stocking up on masks. They don't stop the virus but they can filter out fingers. Washing your hands is also a good idea, especially if you can't keep your hands away from your face. Eightly, you finally admitted that the concern is over effective-transmission, not whether human to human transmission is possible, so one of your contradictory statements is a lie. Please stop telling your lies and half-truths. You're not doing anyone any favors by spreading your misinformation. .

To: tejek who wrote (2749)	10/16/2005 6:43:42 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

There is very little information available to the general public on human bird flu deaths in China, or transmissiblity in China. Henry Niman's web site has an excellent collection of what is known so far. A number of European and North American governments are acting as if there is something scary in this situation. It does not appear to be ONLY a power grab by certain insecure leaders - although that can happen at the same time. Maybe their assesment of the situation is reasonable.