"Rat transmitting to the Universe"...
Americans expect 'miracle' oil reserves
Michael S. Abraham
Abraham is a businessman who lives in Blacksburg.
T. S. Eliot once said, "Humankind cannot stand too much reality."
Parade magazine embodies this philosophy to the hilt in, "Oil, Energy at What Cost."
Parade has always been to journalism what bacon-cheeseburgers have been to nutrition. The overall tenor, "don't worry too much," fits with its perpetual rose-colored look on the world. But this article is so full of factual inaccuracies and obfuscations it renders itself worthless, doing more harm than good.
Few scientific or political arguments are irrefutable, but here's one: Oil is a finite resource. We began marching toward its extraction peak with the consumption of the first barrel.
People often think our troubles will begin when we run out. This is both inaccurate and misleading, and belies the urgency of the situation since many believe we won't "run out" for decades. In actuality, we will never truly run out. There will always be oil left in the ground, either undiscovered or unrecoverable, either because of remoteness or the energy required to extract it exceeds its energy value.
However, we will reach a point when all the world's consumers need more than the Earth's wells can provide. A small gap between supply and demand is more than enough to multiply costs and shatter our economy.
Think of it this way: You are king of a growing population on an island and you have enough food to feed 100 this year but only 98 next year. For the two people destined for starvation, the shortage is a problem right now, long before you "run out." That's where we are.
Peak oil will happen soon, as near as a few months to a few years. It is certainly not decades away.
Nay-sayers waggishly proclaim, "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone. The Earth is awash in energy, and we'll go onto something else."
And they're right. The world is awash in energy, but most of it simply isn't usable.
A few weeks ago, New Orleans was awash in water, but hundreds died of thirst. Oil is the densest, most convenient, historically abundant energy source around and we have engineered our society to consume it lustily. Maybe there is a new energy source on the horizon just waiting to be developed, but nothing is ready. My friend the engineer believes in technology and says not to worry. "My favorite (emerging alternative for oil) is thermal depolymerization."
Well, until your local Exxon station will sell you 20 gallons of thermal depolymerization, petroleum will be vital to our economic survival.
Debate this if you will, but no energy source or combination of energy sources, either existing or new, can feasibly replace what's lost when there's less oil available each year.
Parade's article quotes "expert" Dan Yergin saying, "New supplies now under development could lower prices in a couple of years," but there is nothing in the literature to support this notion. Instead, do this math: 50 years ago the world consumed 4 billion barrels per year and discovered 30 billion; last year the world consumed 30 billion and discovered 4 billion. The dearth of discovery is not for lack of trying; exploration continues apace.
There are simply limited places on Earth where oil could have been formed. Significant new finds are unlikely. New fields will be smaller, deeper, in more remote places, and will require more energy to extract.
In our supply and demand equation, any supply solution that doesn't contain the word "miracle" seems unlikely to save us. Instead, we will, by choice or by nature, simply do with less.
Barring such a miracle, the way we do everything is destined to change dramatically. We will become intensely more local. Simply driving a bit less or switching our fleet to hybrids can't hurt, but a fundamental restructuring of our communities along denser, more self-sufficient, more pedestrian models will be mandatory. Lines at the gas pumps and/or rationing will be the new normal. All recreational use of gasoline and non-essential driving will be taboo. Frivolous trips will become distant memories. Food will become scarcer and more expensive; Wal-Mart's pipeline of kitsch from China will cease. The airlines are already imploding, the travel industry is doomed.
And what would be the most ominous response to these changes? Our deep American sense of entitlement may lead us to war over what oil is left (see Iraq).
Face it: Gasoline will cost more; sometimes with dramatic spikes, sometimes with momentary skids, but generally upward indefinitely.
Meanwhile, most of us will stew in a stupor of privilege and obliviousness. Our elected leaders, devoid of fortitude or fair-mindedness, burden us with energy and transportation legislation full of pork that rewards the rich and does nothing to curb our consumption or lessen our dependency.
It might be behoove us, then, to apply some reality and actively consider scenarios whereby everything doesn't turn out OK.
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