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Biotech / Medical : Avian ("Bird") Flu Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (10)	10/17/2005 10:03:36 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 428

<<"An NPV of $350 million, for example, implies $900 million of sales next year at a 50% gross profit and discounting back 15%. If you assume there is risk associated with the company realizing future cash flow from peramivir, then the implied future cash flow is considerably larger. For example, handicapping the likelihood of BioCryst winning a government contract and selling product next year at 50%, implies BioCryst sells $1.8 billion worth of peramivir next year!>>> His math is funny (his npv is for only year one) and he's not accounting for fodosine which is a fairly low risk program. What would one fat government order do for the stock? Going to be interesting to see how bcrx turns out.