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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (43654)	10/17/2005 3:06:37 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon Oct 17 2005 14:40 trotsky (James@Murenbeeld&Hoye) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i absolutely agree that having those two in our camp is extremely comforting. i note Russell and Saville are also on the illustrious list of long term gold bulls. last but not least it's very nice knowing that Prechter continues to be bearish in spite of the fact that everything that he has said would turn him bullish has in fact happened. Date: Mon Oct 17 2005 14:27 trotsky (frustrated@money supply) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there has been a recent pick-up in quarterly money supply growth rates, but the y-o-y rates remain very subdued and close to recent lows nevertheless: martincapital.com note that the pick-up in quarterly growth rates coincides with a big decline in commercial paper issuance growth: martincapital.com these appear to go hand in hand, and it looks to me like an early recession warning sign at this stage, especially considering this martincapital.com Date: Mon Oct 17 2005 14:14 trotsky (ted butler) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved first of all, congrats on your piece about the SUA's opposition to the ETF. it has been dubbed one of your best efforts of late here in discussion last week. you asked "If you, or anyone else has a better explanation, let’s hear it." - in conncection with the fact that silver prices have stayed low in spite of a well-documented primary supply deficit over the years. i would think the explanation is obvious - above ground stocks have been larger than anyone thought. apparently the fact that they were not documented failed to mitigate against their existence. i don't believe that a true shortage can possibly be 'papered over' via trades on the COMEX. regarding the leasing of metal, it is true that this artificially increases supplies to the market, but that can only happen if those supplies do in fact exist in the form of inventory somewhere ( you can't very well lease out air ) . as we have seen with gold hedging, once DEhedging begins ( i.e., metal leases are paid back ) , the opposite effect occurs, i.e. supplies that the market would have expected are suddenly held back. the end result is a wash, so it's not really worth worrying about.