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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (182406)10/19/2005 7:47:17 AM
From: t2  Respond to of 186894
 
Lizzie, I am so blown away by the sentiment numbers now that I am really starting to wonder if this data is that important.

My primary reason for concern is the mutual fund flows. In the past few years, money had continued to flow into the US market(even into non-tech funds) but in the past few months, it got diverted to international in a big way. Maybe this is the new pattern emerging for retirement savings.

If this is the new money does not stop flowing into the good performing markets, then we could be in a stock deflation situation...that looks similiar to the crash of 2000 but one that lasts for many years.

Just look at japan, european markets, india etc.. They are on fire and money is chasing them too. Who knows when they run out of steam? Big US money chasing smaller asian markets and you get a parabolic move.

just my guess as to what is going on. This is tougher than any other period I have seen after the bubble bursting. All those turned on extreme sentiment data but this one does not want to yet.

btw-hope my concern is indicative of lots of others and therefore we turn higher on the US
markets.

hope we see a very weak open today on the markets. that would be positive.