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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (43767)	10/19/2005 7:26:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I say bubble Although i am invested in HK, but this time at the luxury residential end, on the peak, purchased out of distress, naturally, in a pool with others, of course. The interest rate has now hit 5.75%, from a low of 3.25% at end of last year. Popping cannot be too far ahead. Our pool is around 50% invested, with 35-40% in Japan and 10-15% in HK, if I remember correctly. The remaining 50% is not yet called for, waiting for pandemic or something equally dramatic, I guess. Am still holding full-harbour view industrial/commercial units next to the old airport (opposite the gas storage tanks). The government has spent billion + local currency to clean up the entire airport site, will soon announce master plan, either centered around cruiseship terminal and tourism related stuff, or government facilities (relocation and aggregation of all government offices to act as core of new development), and residential/commercial. I do not particularly care which way they decide, as long as they decide. I got the units during the 1997 post airport relocation panic (a localized affair that caused the units to transact at 8+% yield on depressed rent rate). Am also doing master-planning for own Koh Samui abode, in thailand, where prices of certain types of property and land (beach, hill w/ view, and all w/ municipal and/or ground water) is approaching Hawaii price when it was still reasonable (2000). my cost level, born of Asian financial crisis, will tally (construction included) to about 1/6 to 1/8 of market value. New group looking for land to aggregate and market to mainland chinese who desire tropical vacation, and do not care about the cost that seem a bargain relative to their cash flow and moolah hoard. We are holding fire to see how the pandemic pans out. Conclusion: HK retail will blow, residential (especially at the mass-market end) will suffer badly, again, but there are still opportunities here and there, and some shelters to hide in. The flu thing may prove a fizzer, as in nothing happens, or may turn out to be a big opportunity, assuming one does not catch a terminal case of the flu. Refrigerator stocked with Tamilflu, and will get flu shot this Saturday.