To: Paul Senior who wrote (22285 ) 10/23/2005 8:41:23 AM From: Volsi Mimir Respond to of 78644 XOM-- one article suggests the REFCO debaucle is the culprit to sell the big block-- alot of scenarios with that hypothesis. Hoping for an increase in dividends as a carrot. WSJ article on oil: IEA Head Warns Oil Supply Could Tighten Again By BHUSHAN BAHREE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL October 21, 2005 7:44 p.m.; Page A3 In a sign that the recent stability in oil markets may be a temporary lull, the International Energy Agency's executive director Friday warned that petroleum supplies may start tightening again as early as next month. In a phone interview with The Wall Street Journal, Claude Mandil said he was concerned that demand for petroleum products may rebound very soon, while repairs to hurricane-damaged energy-production facilities in the U.S. will take much longer. That dynamic could reopen a supply gap that may have to be filled by additional releases of oil and oil products from emergency stockpiles held by IEA member states. "We are not out of the woods," Mr. Mandil said, stressing that the IEA, which oversees emergency oil-sharing arrangements among 26 of the world's leading industrial economies, is monitoring the situation closely. On Thursday, the IEA's governing board met in Paris and decided to forgo, for now, any further release of oil from emergency stocks, beyond the 60 million barrels it made available to markets after hurricanes severely damaged oil facilities and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico. But it kept open its previous offer for oil and refined products, which hasn't been fully taken up by buyers. Oil use declined after the hurricanes, as the price of gasoline and other products jumped, and possibly also because supplies at the pump were tight. But the U.S. and its partners in the IEA moved quickly to offer large volumes of oil and oil products such as gasoline from emergency stocks. The U.S. also relaxed environmental and transport rules to allow the industry to provide more petroleum quickly. These measures, and a belief among some economists and oil analysts that the blow to demand may be long-lasting, have pushed down oil prices in recent weeks. Now, Mr. Mandil, who heads the agency that keeps the closest tabs on world oil demand and supply, is warning that the falloff in demand may prove to be short-lived, and that a supply crunch may be just around the corner. "It may be difficult in November and December," Mr. Mandil said, when asked about the prospects for adequate oil products to meet demand. Mr. Mandil said the IEA has advised its members of the potential for tight supplies in the months ahead, a situation that could worsen if there is a colder-than-normal winter in the Northern Hemisphere. "For the time being, things are rather balanced," Mr. Mandil said, adding that "it would be absurd today to make more emergency [stock] releases." But he said "the effect [of the hurricanes] on the supply side may be long-lasting and continue into 2006." He cited extensive damage to oil-production and refining facilities, and the paucity of rigs and other equipment needed to restore production. The IEA chief said he hoped that consumer behavior has changed and that oil use is moderating. But he expressed skepticism that such moderation would last. "We hope it will not be necessary to release more stocks, but I will be watching the data carefully and, if needed, will make a recommendation to the governing board" to provide more oil, Mr. Mandil said. Write to Bhushan Bahree at bhushan.bahree@wsj.com