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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (51793)	10/19/2005 12:52:14 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Respond to of 206195

The reason that CL and NG shoot up right after Rita and Katrina is to caused demand destruction so that we will have enough CL/NG/gasoline/jet fuel etc. And why should we be surprise if we see demand destruction now?? The $64,000 question: Have we found the equilibrium at this price point? The general economic situation in US (higher inflation, higher fed rate, high deficit, high current account deficit, slower home sales) has a lot more influence on the near term direction of all the oil/NG stock. Since we more or less know what the capacity of the Oil/refinery/NG production, the demand side is going to determine the price. And the general economy is the driver for the demand. The EIA data just tell us what the situation was for the reporting period. It cannot tell us what the future will be. Long term, I will go with the thesis that Diana has, NG/CL in the ground is going to go higher 10/15 years from now and the stock price of all those companies who own it will benefit. BR is still showing +200% from 5 years ago (roughly the last oil/ng peak) and XTO is still showing +500% for the same period. So why should we not believe that NG stock price will be higher in the next peak compare to today?? Shorter term, we are going to have a tough year in 06. If inflation is coming back with Fed tightening, housing market slowing down, housing ATM stop working, we are going to have a a recession (or stagflation, take your pick) and probably bring down most of the world with us. And energy stock will have a tough time. But that is after this winter, so place your bet.