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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (2834)	10/19/2005 8:31:06 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

<with this one, its not been proven....at least not yet.......that human to human has occurred.> I think it might have been proven - Henry Niman said so if I remember rightly. The point is that human to human transmission does occur, because humans can catch it from hens and therefore they can catch it from humans. The question is how easily that process happens. Maybe it requires a deep throat tongue kiss with a sore mouth to get lots of viruses to find a weak cell to enter. I doubt that it's that difficult. You won't find doctors kissing H5N1 patients. The fact that there has been human to human transmission doesn't mean it's a pandemic. It has to do that easily and the key to easily is the combination of the H5N1 DNA with a human flu DNA to give an H12N8 humanized easy-swap bug. With the number of flu cases being reported, we can pretty well guess when the bug will go critical. At any one time, there is maybe 10% of the population suffering a flu infection during wintry infection time [or more during a major onslaught, or less with summer infection rates]. So the H5N1 has only a one in 10 chance of finding a good brewing ground for DNA swaps and that DNA swap has to happen over a few days as the person is soon better and the opportunity is lost. With only 5 humans at a time infected with H5N1, at current infection rates [I guess], the chances of the H5N1 getting a good mix of humanized flu DNA is fairly low. With the mass murder of hens, turkeys, ducks and other fowl going on, the chances of the H5N1 finding a breeding human remains low. If we can get through this winter, which seems likely as governments are going nuts killing H5N1 birds, rightly so, then the bug will be attenuated and vaccines will be developed, Tamiflu and other treatments developed more. It's nearly November and there aren't many H5N1 cases occurring, so that's a good sign. Sars was a good warning shot! It perked governments up and made them realize infections could be catastrophic. Mqurice