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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saturn V who wrote (182422)	10/19/2005 9:59:37 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

yes, in 01 the market thought that we'd return to growth. Even in 02, which was a terrible year, I was more optimistic than now. This economy has the 70s written all over it.

To: Saturn V who wrote (182422)	10/20/2005 11:32:53 PM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

18% revenue growth is fantastic (for a large company.) Intc sags due to future economic concerns. Hightech large caps stocks could be in the tank until energy and interest rate increases cease. While Q3 performed better than expected, Intel is forecasting Q4 performance to be less than seasonal normality (Intel believes the global economy may slow down.) This is what concerns the analysts. Some OEMs have built up $100M inventory in Q3 because they want to prepare for a Q4 upside, however, I think Intel is basically saying they learned the hard way (August 2001) to go by their own forecast which is exactly what Intel should do since the OEMs were incorrect at guessing the prior downturn. H2-05 is predicted to be seasonal to prior H2's, due to an expectation of a global slow-down in Q4 that's comparable to $100M, so the extra $100M from Q3 essentially goes away, leaving a seasonal H2. This means to me, there will be no upside this year unless the economy performs better than what Intel expects it to. In a nutshell, Intel will do great if the economy continues to do great, but most (Intel, Greenspan, economists, etc.) expect the economy to slow down, and Intel has factored this into Q4, which is prudent. As far as 2006 goes, the analysts asked many times what GMs would be in Q1 because the analysts are very concerned Intel is currently at the peak of a cycle. One would expect GMs to begin declining after a peak cycle, but the question is when. Bryant said fabs will continue to eek out improvements. Otellini enthusiastically reminded everyone about the new products that are coming online next year that will make life hard for AMD. But the real question is left unanswered because no one knows when the global economy will start to slow down. If the economy keeps going along, Intc would be very under-priced as it enters the new year with a lot of promising new releases. One can see why an analyst made a target of $35, provided the economy hums along fine but the economy is questionable. However, I think Intel's new product releases could counter some of the much anticipated slow-down. Q4 will be a very telling quarter that should give a peak into the future year. One really needs to see how consumers get through a holiday season (Dec USA & Jan China) to get a feel for how well global consumers may (or may not) absorb the high energy costs and increased interest rates. Regards, Amy J