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Strategies & Market Trends : Can you beat 50% per month? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (8938)	10/20/2005 5:47:30 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

Nariman and Wyss and Bernanke and these other analysts are clueless. This is no "soft patch" we're heading into. Katrina is just one of many nails punched into this coffin. Oil and RE and inflation and deficits and war just may play into this. Key Economic Indicator Declines Sharply Thursday October 20, 5:33 pm ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Key Economic Indicator Declines Sharply As Fallout From Gulf Coast Hurricanes Continued to Batter U.S. WASHINGTON (AP) -- An important gauge of future economic activity declined sharply in September as fallout from the Gulf Coast hurricanes continued to batter the U.S. The toll on jobs lost from the storms rose to nearly a half-million. ADVERTISEMENT Cameras MP3 Players Shoes Cell Phones Handbags Laptops The 0.7 percent drop in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, reported Thursday by the Conference Board, was bigger than expected. The gauge now has fallen three straight months for the first time since the recession year of 2001. One rule of thumb says three monthly declines in a row could signal an impending recession. But analysts said this time the index was merely flashing signs of slower growth. "We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a private consulting firm. Many analysts believe that growth during the last half of this year will slow by as much as one percentage point because of the hurricanes. The storm caused heavy job losses along the Gulf Coast as well as widespread shutdowns of refineries and oil platforms. Oil prices surged briefly above $70 per barrel while pump prices at gasoline stations climbed above $3 per gallon. The Labor Department reported that an additional 40,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week because of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. That brought the total for storm-related layoffs to 478,000. The rise in jobless claims along with a plunge in consumer confidence related to the spike in energy prices were major factors in pushing the leading index down by 0.7 percent in September after declines of 0.1 percent in both August and July. Concerns over the prospect of a slowing economy and weak corporate profits sent the Dow Jones skidding on Thursday. The Dow fell by 133.03 points to close at 10,281.10 after gaining 128 points on Wednesday. "The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. Wyss said he believed growth will slow to about 3.1 percent for the second half of this year. That compares with his estimate before the hurricanes that the economy would grow at a 3.8 percent rate in the July-December period. Wyss predicted a rebound next year as the rebuilding of damaged offices and 360,000 lost homes gets under way. Analysts were encouraged that the rise in hurricane-related jobless claims was only 40,000 last week, down significantly from the 73,000 average for storm claims over the previous three weeks. "It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion's share of that," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. The 40,000 increase in hurricane-related claims was out of a total of 355,000 new claims for unemployment benefits filed last week. That was the lowest overall level since the week ending Sept. 7, the first week that hurricane claims began showing up in the data. Economists are encouraged that jobless claims in other parts of the country have remained steady, indicating that the sharp surge in energy prices was not harming the labor market nationally. "There is no indication that the job market outside of the impacted Gulf Coast has skipped a beat," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. "The hurricanes are having an impact due to the higher energy prices, but I think we can be confident the expansion will remain on track." That is the Bush administration's assessment as well. Ben Bernanke, head of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, told Congress on Thursday that the slowdown caused by the hurricanes would be temporary. The economy, he said, will keep growing "at or near its potential next year." Five of the 10 forward-pointing indicators fell in September. In addition to the big declines from unemployment claims and consumer confidence, the index was held back by weakness in orders for nondefense capital goods, demand for consumer goods and growth in the money supply. Leading Indicators report from Conference Board: conference-board.org Jobless claims: ows.doleta.gov

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (8938)	6/21/2006 8:53:04 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19256

F- Ford - I'll never understand why a company with so much and so many depending on their survival ignored the obvious absurdity in pushing gas-guzzlers. Same with the DCX and GM. Big oil controlling them? Ford may miss plan to return to profit in 2008: report By Steve Goldstein Last Update: 5:07 AM ET Jun 21, 2006 LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F Ford Motor Company News , chart, profile, more F ) may fail to meet its goal of returning to profit in North America by 2008 because of declining sales of sport-utility vehicles, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday, citing unnamed Ford officials. Rising gasoline prices have hurt demand for SUVs, and competition from General Motors (GM General Motors Corporation News , chart, profile, more