Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ridingycurve who wrote (51930)	10/21/2005 7:52:41 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206198

ridinycurve, thanks very kindly for sharing that, its most helpful. In the first few paragraphs is a very frank discussion of the problems they face in trying to put out meaningful data on a weekly basis. My takeaway from that is that I now place even less emphasis on any particular week's data than I did before, especially any stat comparing it from year to year. Below is what I thought was the most salient part of the piece: "As noted above, EIA surveys, both weekly and monthly, measure how much oil is supplied into the market, not actually how much is consumed. Sometimes there may be a lag between oil supplied into the market and when oil is actually consumed. This might result from different inventory behavior related to secondary or tertiary stock levels. For example, if gasoline stations are drawing down their tanks more than normal in order to postpone purchases (a reasonable strategy when prices are expected to decrease or are decreasing) then actual consumption of gasoline may be higher than the product supplied data might show. With both wholesale and retail gasoline prices dropping significantly recently, this could be another reason why EIA's estimate of gasoline demand from our weekly surveys might underestimate actual consumption. So what is really happening with petroleum product consumption? And, with retail prices headed toward pre-hurricane levels, at least for gasoline, are consumption and/or product supplied likely to rebound in tandem? Certainly, the latter shows signs of a rebound as this week's estimates rose well above the most recent four-week average. Although we hesitate to make too much out of one week's worth of data, product supplied is likely to continue to rebound, as Gulf Coast refinery production continues to recover. The question is, how much? Coming weeks' data may shed more light on this important issue." Should be an interesting next few weeks worth of petroleum reports. I tried finding your post in the CWEI board without success. Just curious, did it provoke much discussion? I see this issue as central to the whole energy story. The question is, is this battleship we have been riding on for the last 3+ years starting to change course, or are we just getting bad data about which course it is on? I have decided to hang in there another 3-4 weeks for a better picture. So far this has cost me a lot of money (almost all on paper, but its still real of course), lets see what happens next. I for one would be greatly appreciative if you could copy your CWEI posts onto here, at least those that you see as being particularly significant. I just don't have the time, patience or inclination to wade through all of the posts over there any more.