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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (1329)	10/21/2005 5:12:39 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218505

"We reached the point where demand out-stripped oil supply in 1978. Just a soon as people got used to it, oil prices collapsed." Yep, altho artificial political shortages. Caused a recession, followed by inflation, for us to "get used to it". Should happen more frequently the next 10-20 years. That's called demand destruction. "As for refined products, not even one American refinery has been selling their products to India or China." No, but others do, and they will sell to the highest bidder, which is why Yemen, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, etc are SOL. "sour oil is all they can get their hands on." Light sweet has already peaked... I'm writing this after last week’s story that oil extraction rates from Western oil majors have peaked and are now in decline. This week we learn that light sweet crude oil has also peaked globally and is now in decline. This information has come to us from a most unexpected source, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) itself. OPEC publish a monthly report on the global oil market and the August 2005 issue has data on non-OPEC and OPEC oil extraction by weight and sulphur content from 2000 to 2004. Message 21624772

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (1329)	10/21/2005 9:30:18 PM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218505

“We reached the point where demand out-stripped oil supply in 1978. Just a soon as people got used to it, oil prices collapsed.” Elroy, It is rare that you say something stupid, but it happens .... e.g., the above. As it stands, that statement is gibberish. I would say that prices collapsed not because people got used to demand exceeding supply (whatever the heck that means) but because of Pruhhoe Bay and the North Sea. Your statement, also, that the more people know the oil business the less likely they are to accept Peak Oil is also hard to credit. Colin Campbell, M Laherrere, Buzz Ivenhoe and many other geologist don’t know the business? I’m not buying that one either. I really do appreciate your knowledge about many matters that interest me but sometimes with you I get the feeling that you adopt a position because it makes you feel superior. I’d keep an eye on that.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (1329)	10/22/2005 3:41:06 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218505

<The war in Iraq has also sharply reduced oil output due to sabotage. Expect to see oil prices decline for that reason alone when the Bush War ends> Since oil prices depend on limited supplies, one of the best ways of keeping profits up is to keep competing products off the market. Putting a bullet through the Middle East is an excellent way to keep competing products off the market. Which is exactly what has happened for 15 years. The profits for BP, North Sea, Russia, Exxon, French nuclear power and other competing producers, not to mention USA producers, have been immense over those 15 years and are now phenomenal. I'm not sure that it would be in King George II's oil buddies' interests to have Iraqi oil come flooding onto the market any time soon. I even wonder if Saddam was induced to invade Kuwait for precisely the purpose of getting his oil off the market. In the late 1980s, my BP colleague and I were discussing oil, profits and prices and we figured that the best way to improve profits was to, and we used the precise expression, "Put a bullet through the middle east". Maybe I'm too cynical, but I am getting long in the tooth and over several decades I have found that cynicism, skepticism and doubt have served me well. I will not be surprised to see Iraqi oil stay off the market for quite some time. Or, if Iraq suddenly goes harmonious, politically stable and gung ho for oil export and development, I would not be surprised to see Osama's Saudi Arabian cash flow foundations get a bit of a problem and demands on democratic processes in the kingdom. Or perhaps Iran's nuclear bomb ambitions would be targeted to keep their oil off the market and kill two or three birds with one stone. Mqurice