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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (1440)	10/22/2005 5:34:12 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218434

Hello Elroy Jetson, Isn't it a fact that extraction of oil from the ground in the US every year gets more expensive than the same at various places outside of the US? Now the US imports 51% of its oil. Will the process somehow magically stop? The same thing is true of other countries. North sea oil is getting more and more expensive because less and less of it can be extracted with contemporary processes. Ditto for much of the rest of the world. If there were so much oil left in the ground, how is it that the price is now $57 a barrel for Brent crude? Naturally there will ALWAYS be some oil left in the ground but it looks to me that peak oil is a reality. Anybody who has worked in the oil business for a long time will have suffered through amazing drops in prices. This looks like the same old thing. But to me, it looks different. I wouldn't keep oil stocks selling for 50 times earnings but I think oil/gas/coal/Uranium are good things to own. I note that Tobago Jack has adroitly jumped out of most of his energy holdings but he expects to get back in later. I don't follow him like a god, ==there is no god--, but I highly value his judgement and he is going to get far richer than the rest of us. I respect your report about Chevron. I worked there for a couple of years in Richmond and I admire the company. However their $27.50 requirement has not resulted in an increase in their production so they will have to lift it sooner or later. There's no conspiracy except from nature's side. Nature's law is what's gone is gone. We can't get energy from CO2. We may however get cheaper energy from ethanol or from biomass etc. That's the next new and great thing, so I imagine.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (1440)	10/22/2005 10:13:28 PM
From: Slagle	Respond to of 218434

Elroy Re: "Why would any company do that to themselves" That is precisely what the oil business did do right up to the 1970's. Just like farmers have always done they oversupplied the market. Some states had quotas and price controls in an attempt to manage the oversupply. And the main problem was that there was too much oil, from too many small producers and that it was way too cheap. Now though, these big monopoly public company producers are a little more disciplined and maybe collude to a degree that thousands of small independent operators never did. Maybe you are right. There is very little concern about "peak oil" from many of those who should be in a position to know the truth. Maybe Simmonds is just misinformed or has some other agenda. I read his book and one takeaway is that he just endlessly repeats some of the same stats over and over, like he is trying to build column inches and create a really thick tome with the same information that could have been contained in a pamphlet instead. His explanation as to how he got interested in this "peak oil" business is a little too pat. He claims that it was the result of a visit he made to Saudi in I think 2001. But somewhere else I read something similar he wrote in 1992. If you are anywhere near right oil stocks may be VERY overpriced now. Slagle