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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (1447)	10/22/2005 7:32:47 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 218449

I know is that a refinery expansion requires six years of planning and construction, while exploration and production is typically a much longer time frame. If an oil company made investments to meet the additional demands created by the Bush War in Iraq, the results would not be seen for six plus years. So for an oil company, the war in Iraq would need to still be going on six years from now -- and continue for enough years to pay for the new investment, say another ten years. Will the war in Iraq still be going on sixteen years from now? I think that's a really bad bet, and obviously so do major oil companies. Americans will tire of this folly long before that time-frame. So really big expansions are a bad bet for oil companies, but is oil a good or bad investment for you? I expect a really bad recession at some point, long before sixteen years from now. Maybe it has already begun, or maybe it starts some other time - I'll leave that for you to decide. I believe that recession will knock the stuffings out of oil prices. I think that's your real near-term risk. .