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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el_gaviero who wrote (1478)	10/23/2005 7:31:55 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 218449

Hello to you, El Gaviero. I think Elroy Jetson is not talking as an economist, but as an oil man. He is not saying "just raise the price and the supply will appear." He is saying that temporary factors, mainly the Bush war in Iraq, are artificially decreasing the supply so that when that war is abandoned, the supply will bounce back to normal. Then so will the price return to normal. Some reflection suggests to me another factor operating. As we all know China is producing everything from tooth brushes to PC cables, exporting them and replacing such production in hitherto more industrialized companies. This would mean zero increase in global production. However we have to add the increased Chinese local consumption of tooth brushes, PC cables etc. It is said that the Chinese middle class is increasing to 200 million or so people. So world wide energy consumption is increasing from that source in a presumably non-temporary way. Chinese and Canadians BOTH need tooth brushes etc. The Iraq war factor is temporary but the industrialization of CIB,i.e. China,India and Brazil, is a lasting factor. I don't know if the large oil companies of the world are considering this factor in their estimates of future oil prices.