To: LindyBill who wrote (144256 ) 10/24/2005 12:47:17 AM From: Nadine Carroll Respond to of 793919 "This is exactly where we are now," he said of Iraq, with no apparent satisfaction. "We own it. And we can't let go. We're getting sniped at. Now, will we win? I think there's a fairchance we'll win. But look at the cost." This seems to be the new meme going around, "So, alright, maybe we will win in Iraq. But it wasn't worth the cost." Meaning, so we were right to oppose the war. But this begs the obvious question, which is "the cost as opposed to what?" In reality, it was the Iraq war or...what? Saddam surviving with no sanctions, with WMDs (as everyone thought, and I'm glad to see Scowcroft is honest enough not to have developed amnesia on the subject), and free to go shopping for more? That certainly seemed the most likely outcome of the pre-Sept 11th scenario. Now that we know about AQ Khan's Sam's Club for Nukes, does that sound like a good option to you? Less expensive in the short term, certainly. But where would it have lead?In the article, he argued that an invasion of Iraq would deflect American attention from the war on terrorism, and that it would do nothing to solve the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, which he has long believed is the primary source of unhappiness in the Middle East. ...unlike most of the Bush administration, which rightly understands that the existence of Israel, and its use as the Great Scapegoat and Excuse for Everything by the dysfunctional despotic Arab regimes, is the primary source of unhappiness in the Middle East."The obsession of the region . . . is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Scowcroft wrote in the Journal. "If we were seen to be turning our back on that bitter conflict -- which the region, rightly or wrongly, perceives to be clearly within our power to resolve -- in order to go after Iraq, there would be an explosion of outrage against us." So, was there? The Arab Street has been pretty quiet. The mass marches have been in Lebanon, where they were marching against Syria, not us. If the US were not in Iraq, that would never have happened, nor the ensuing Syrian withdrawal, nor the Libyan flip, nor the Egyptian elections, nor the liberalization of Al Arabia. Crucially, Arabists like Scowcroft never understand the difference between supporting Arabs and supporting Arab Regimes . The diplomats may murmur that the US must be more "balanced"; but the people will only hate us more for propping up their tyrants.