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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (26289)	10/25/2005 11:35:40 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95931

Hi Don, As a General Motors dealer I can speak to how horrible it is to work out of an excess inventory situation. Correct if my memory is wrong,but didn't TI get hung up in an excess inventory situation just a year ago and paid a price for it for Q1,Q2 and a little of Q3? If so,I can guarantee you that management is dead set to not repeat an overinventory situation again. After sweating about excess inventory which kills margins,once you work oput of the situation,you vow to never go in that land again. Once bit - twice shy, kind of a thing. Its much better to extend orders out into a delayed delivery situation and enjoy much bigger margins. These are very good problems (growth) to have. Rational allocation of resources.IMO Bob

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (26289)	10/25/2005 11:16:46 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95931

TI reported profit rose 12% from the year-ago period. Big money isn't always smart but big money has plenty of leverage - big money extrapolated from the past and 2005 wasn't supposed to be double digit profit growth (for TI) - it was supposed a downturn; DDR2 sales are impacted by Intel chipset shortage, ProMOS says Printer friendly Related stories Comments Email to a friend Latest news Vyacheslav Sobolev, DigiTimes.com, Taipei [Tuesday 25 October 2005] DDR2 demand is still impacted by the shortage of Intel chipsets, and the situation will be not alleviated until the first quarter of 2006, DRAM vendor ProMOS Technologies said at its investor conference. Due to slower than expected ramp-up in DDR2 demand, we expect DDR demand to stay healthy throughout the whole last quarter of this year, ProMOS vice president of sales and marketing group Ben Tseng stated. The key to wider DDR2 adoption by the industry in the second half of 2005 could be mainstream Intel platforms based on entry-level 945 series chipsets, but these chipsets are still subject to shortage, Tseng said. Touching memory pricing trends, he noted that both OEM and spot prices suffered some erosion earlier this year, but are now stabilized. He defined current DDR2 prices as considerably lower compared to DDR. So far, ProMOS has no DDR2 products validated by Intel. When asked why it is so, Tseng answered the issue is only about choosing the right time and place to do the validation rather than a technical issue or anything else. The company has currently no plans to sample FB-DIMM products in any quantities before the first quarter of 2006, according to Tseng. He said that ProMOS did not yet decide what company will be its supplier of advanced memory buffer (AMB) chips and what subcontractor will do FB-DIMM assembling. Tseng mentioned that ProMOS has a close relationships with Kingston, but it is not yet confirmed that this partnership will be extended to the company’s FB-DIMM product line. Tseng indicated that this quarter, 0.12-micron and 0.11-micron technology nodes will account for over 70% of capacity at two existing ProMOS factories in Hsinchu, further reducing its manufacturing cost per die. In addition, the schedule for volume production of 512Mbit DDR DRAM employing 90nm stack technology was recently moved up to this month, and it is now projected that the company will produce more than 5 million 512Mbit DDR chips in the fourth quarter. As reported earlier, ProMOS will again increase its capital expenditure (capex) in 2006. The estimated value is US$700 million, following the initial plan to reach an output of 30,000 wafers per month at Fab III at the Central Taiwan Science Park (CTSP), according to Tseng. An additional US$500 million is needed to upgrade Fab III to a 70nm production and to reach an output of 40,000 wafers per month in 2007. Last week, ProMOS reported that it has obtained a five-year syndicated loan from 15 local Taiwan banks securing the funds for its Fab III expansion plan, and its volume production schedule has been moved up to the third quarter of 2006. The total investment for Fab III is projected to be US$1.8 billion. The second ProMOS plant in CTSP, Fab IV, is expected to begin mass production in 2007. This plant is targeted to reach an output of 40,000 wafers per month and to utilize 60nm stack technology, Tseng pointed out. ProMOS will focus on 70nm technology in 2007-2008 and its 60nm process will debut at the end of 2008, and it will then be rapidly ramped in 2009, the company said. ProMOS also plans to establish a new business unit for non-DRAM businesses in 2006.