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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (39850)	10/26/2005 12:11:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The McKinsey Global Survey of Business Executives , October 2005 Executives' confidence in the US economy has fallen rapidly—global outlook is unchanged. The confidence of US executives in their economy plummeted over the past three months, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey of Business Executives. The confidence of executives overall in the global economy was unchanged: more of our respondents are upbeat than not, by a small margin (Exhibit 1). But significant shifts occurred at the regional level; executives in China and in other developing markets (with the exception of India) also reported declining confidence in their country's economy. US-based executives have generally been among the more optimistic in our surveys: when asked in March how they felt about the economy 6 months hence, a majority—an index of 59—were very confident. For this survey, when asked about current conditions versus those six months ago, this same group registered a confidence level of 44—the lowest since we began measuring it 18 months ago and the lowest of any group of executives in the world (Exhibit 2). Respondents from China and other developing markets (with the exception of India) also grew significantly less confident about their national economies over the past six months. Executives from India, whose position changed little over this period, remain more confident about their national economy—where growth has been strong—than are executives anywhere else in the world.1 [mish note - interesting graphs and text but you have to register (free) to see it] mckinseyquarterly.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (39850)	10/26/2005 12:50:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Future Shock at the Fed By JAMES GRANT nytimes.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (39850)	10/27/2005 1:59:11 AM
From: freechina	Respond to of 116555

Whats in Bernankes Wallet? By Henry Blodget - analyzing the PFD (personal financial disclosures of Bernanke) slate.msn.com I don't know wether to laugh or cry - one of the biggest losers of peoples money analyzing the PFD of the biggest printers of that same money! Why do you think what you do about wage floors Calculated? I am curious to know your thinking, I have much respect for your blog calculated - always some great goodies there. Wage floors interesting subject - Rothbard was very anti state no? He did not like wage floors - Bernanke says he does not either. They get in the way of free market forces. So perhaps wal - mart will not get thier wish. The original research on that woman/eugenics stuff was from another princeton econ man - t leonard princeton.edu He will be publishing it in some econ journal. Now I wonder if this is free market/no wage floor meme is normal for princeton crowd? I read Krugman - does he favor wage floors? What does krugmans teacher bhagwati think of wage floors? I went to mexico last year, they had kids working at the grocery store bagging fruit. Personally I thought this was teaching a good work ethic in a very social environment in nice grocery store - beats teaching them to learn how to blow up demons sitting on DOOM game system all day eh? Or remember that picture of kids in middle east being taught to chop off heads? I see many commercials on TV saying be a coach or be a good dad and spend time with your kids to keep them off drugs. Then I see other commercials with bored kids sitting at home all day playing with thier socks after school. Seems to me good WORK programs would free up this problem. If the kids could have worked cutting grass and nailing hammer into wood or picking fruit - perhaps so many hispanics could not find work in USA eh? (shhh - don't tell anyone) However I did watch special on kids who die in silver mines in south america - so maybe both extremes too rash. I do see major drug problem all over florida - was getting haircut last week from 80 year old barber - one customer just retired and moved down from philly - said he liked fla for the weather but even after only being here a few months could see drug problem was very bad. Barber said just go to work, grocery store, and church - never get on drugs like that. Then I read J Chris Parson talk about church in Utah and say maybe Church not so good idea. Fundamentalist Mormon philosophy make me laugh - BLEED the BEAST with welfare checks - BWAHAH! I know some 13 year olds that want to work - but can't - and they could help. My mom picked fruit when she was 9 - my dad worked in tobacco warehouse at 10. Oh the horrors - I was playing ZORK at same age in nice air conditioned home with Tang space drink. I think however as governments get pressed for employment - they respond more to those that have money and possibly voting power - kids have niether. In the past anti-trust laws were suspended to allow less competition and more profit. I hear that bush give 3 million jobs in homeland security (basically his entire claimed labor increase eh?) - giving jobs in no bid contracts haliburton style - giving jobs in useless bridge to no where transportation bills - how that so different from what happened in the past? If housing collapse - create more jobs. In africa they bulldozing houses just to rebuild them eh? Broken window fallacy keeping idle hands working. I read tax base in certain places 80% plus comes from homeowners - not business - that seem unsustainable. Look what you and me do with lots of our FREE time - sit on SI and talk to each other - I am very thankful - I be very bored without all the fun of internet and knowledge research. Russ Winter recent post of Gender Joke make me laugh long and hard. However I have mexican neighbors, they so bored they go to the casino almost every weekend - they used to fish a lot but got tired of that - casino more fun. If that get boring to them - I guess they could start wearing ski mask and start shooting up neighbors to relieve boredom. In the past when people got really bored - like nathaniel hawthorne or Loathing las vegas guy - people sit around and write a lot of stuff - like mish and calculated do with thier blogs - but loathing guy just shoot himself - he must have not think of anything new to write about and too bored to go on. What did hemingway do when he got bored? What did Hughes do when he got bored? I know Hefner does things when he get bored - he seem to want to live - not shoot himself or withdraw from society. Where michael jackson now - he got bored and run off to middle east eh? All the action over there now - let all the bored youths from many countries have fun playing REAL LIFE DOOM. You and I maybe more sophisticated version of my mexican neighbor - he plays in casino with video blackjack - you and I play in housing and stock market casino - rigged just the same probably - but more sophisticated. You like charts - I do too - here is chart on ebay auction counts from guys who make my trading software. medved.net Some of my friends get on Ebay a lot and tie up thier time buying/selling/shipping junk to have something to do. I know in China wage floors could be bad - El Mat says free market forces and work has been good for many places where government rules and regulations were not. I think lately I am leaning more towards fair trade than free trade - I want same basic rights and legal protections in China as most think they have in the west. I don't want to read any more stories of little girl getting acid poured on her because she did not make factory quota. The link I posted earlier showed it was very close vote in the supreme court on children and women and wage floor issues. There were concerns from the president altering supreme court staff and power and this may have made concessions back then. I am hearing financial planner commercial right now saying call if you just lost your job or got downsized to talk about moving and evaluating 401k!! Idle hands Calculated - the fear of governments east and west!! How many other feds have mandate to stop inflation and keep up employment? China CCP KNOW its ALL OVER if they dont keep those idle hands busy - it will get very ugly over there - already last year 70 THOUSAND riots by their citizens!!! I did not believe number - that is fascinating! Hot Damn! There are only 365 days in a year - talk about POLICE STATE! That is like every 7 minutes NEW PROTEST - how you keep that under control with central authority - no way possible. kentucky.com President Hu Jintao has vowed to improve the rule of law and foster a more "harmonious society." But those pledges are in growing contradiction with his vast national bureaucracy and its attempts to crack down on the largest rise in social unrest since democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The government counted 74,000 protests, riots and demonstrations in 2004, up 28 percent from the previous year; the number was 10,000 a decade ago. In August, the government announced plans to establish special police units in 36 cities to help stem the threat of riots and terrorism, authorities said. The party has also tried to curb corruption in its own ranks by embarking on a campaign to send millions of mid- and low-level cadres to reindoctrination sessions. Yet the tensions have only increased. At a key party conference this month, top Communist Party leaders acknowledged the need to bridge these social fissures. In mapping out their economic plan for the next five years, they emphasized the need to eliminate "contradictions," including the gap between rich and poor. I read mish going to find old copy of "adventure" and play it again - maybe he on to something - I like Mish idea - I might get on ebay and buy old Atari St and copy of Guild of Thieves to rerun my more entertaining days. As the previous chart show - maybe I need to wait til last week in december - sales will be down and maybe pick up a good deal - hehe.