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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (26315)	10/26/2005 12:38:04 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95923

What's so great about that analysis? For every piece of evidence that can be manufactured (using words or charts) that the chip cycle has bottomed and should move higher we can also find evidence that we will continue within a prolonged downturn. One that might even get worse before it gets better. There is nothing wrong with buying a beaten down stock if you are willing to hold it however long it might be necessary to make a decent gain but stocks could get a lot cheaper and I can give you a half a dozen really good reasons why they will: 1.) Only twice since 1950 has the S&P 500 avoided what is essentially a 4 year cyclical bottom like we saw in October 1998 and October 2002. These bottoms are often tremendous buying opportunities especially in technology set with mid term lows: investorshub.com 2.) Despite all the negativism that seems to be present with high levels of short selling on the NYSE and recent record highs for the moving averages on the put to call ratios analysts, the Investors Intelligence Poll and the volatility indices remain not only complacent but overly bullish. These conditions do not keep the stock market from rising but they are not what is typically seen at a true long term bottom. schaeffersresearch.com vtoreport.com investorshub.com 3.) The FED seems to be intent on using inflation as an excuse to deflate the housing bubble and slow the current economic growth. 4.) This is pushing the yield curve ever closer to an inverted situation. Sure that might not happen. And it may not guarantee a recession will happen if it does but don't count on that not happening either. 5.) Energy costs are historically high. Despite this the high volume selling recently in energy and utility stocks is indicative of a market top not a market bottom. 6.) What happens if we get an avian flu outbreak in the US? Just the fear of something communicable could result in a dramatic change in how we live our lives. The result to the stock market would be brutal. Anyway, just some food for thought. As always I could be wrong. RtS