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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (44290)	10/26/2005 4:10:33 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Oct 26 2005 15:38 trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved a function of the yield curve, as often enough mentioned here. concurrently with a flattening yield curve, the ratio of gold to other commodities tends to come under pressure, which has the effect that the margins of gold miners tend to contract in spite of the higher gold price. all of these trends tend to revert once the yield curve is steepening again. Date: Wed Oct 26 2005 15:33 trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved most likely the gold stocks are discounting a coming correction in the gold price. alternatively they are pressured by weak earnings and a continuing contraction in the yield spread. it's not worth getting excited over. the secular bull market will resume in full force once the yield curve reverts to steepening again - very likely in early 06. in the meantime there will be ups and downs, and probably a lot of whining. Date: Wed Oct 26 2005 15:30 trotsky (ok, another example...) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in mid 1978, the gold price had just reached a new bull market high of $280 - a full 40% above its late 1974 high. DROOY was trading just below $3 at the time, down almost 90% from its 1974 high of $21. 2 years later the stock traded at $52. the same thing happened with countless other gold issues at the time. they didn't at first believe the gold rally - and then they started believing it in spades. Date: Wed Oct 26 2005 15:17 trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "One more thing. What oil stock didn't participate in oil's rally? If I remember correctly, the XLE and OIH were hitting highs on a daily basis." yes - after they had spent almost two years doing nothing in the face of rising oil prices. the rally in the XOI started in late 03, in a much belated acknowledgement of soaring crude oil prices. for a long time the market held the erroneous belief that the Iraq occupation would actually bring oil prices down. and oh yes, BEFORE they started rising, oil stocks were as popular with Wall Street's analysts as gold stocks are now ( only 27% of the gold stock ratings are 'buy' or better - which mirrors the situation in the oil patch before the rally ) . Date: Wed Oct 26 2005 11:58 trotsky (Alberich@McCain) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved McCain was himself tortured as a PoW in Vietnam. he knows therefore whereof he speaks first hand. chickenhawk Cheney otoh never set foot on a battlefield ( he had 'other priorities' at the time of the war ) , and quite obviously knows nothing about either war or torture. the fact that there is a debate over whether or not to allow torture at all is hugely damaging to the reputation of the US and endangers all US soldiers, who can from now on expect that their enemies won't hesitate to torture them as well in case of capture ( of course, if one foregoes torture, it does not guarantee that others will do likewise - but your chances sink to zero once your enemy knows you employ torture yourself ) . in any event, the issue is deeply shameful...torture should not even be considered as a potential option among civilized people. it is a tool of barbarians, and it has never achieved its alleged aim of producing valuable information - people who are tortured will after all say anything to make it stop. Cheney and the whole Bushco gang are disgusting - the torture issue shows you their true character...and apparently they don't care that they besmirch the reputation of the US further with every word they utter on the topic.