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To: maceng2 who wrote (40241)	10/30/2005 11:30:21 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

There IS a potential problem from Avian flu. The likelihood of a pandemic is low (probably much less than 5% chance in the next 5 years), but the consequences of a pandemic could be catastrophic. I know people that wanted Cipro during the Anthrax attacks and they want Tamiflu now - buying Cipro was absurd - at least Tamiflu makes some sense. Personally I think it is a waste of money.

To: maceng2 who wrote (40241)	10/31/2005 12:57:39 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 116555

Its a game of chance whether H5N1 "bird flu" becomes a major pandemic. The net pandemic is inevitable and overdue. Whether H5N1 mutates enough to become the big winner, only time will tell. Viruses replicate sloppily, giving them an advantage in that they have a good chance of mutating every time they infect a cell. Now 99.99% of the new viral types are not going to be viable, but a small chance will be -- and an even smaller percentage of the new virus will not only be viable but better able to thrive in many ways. The biggest advantage viruses have in this sloppy replication is their ability to swap genes with other viruses. If an H5N1 virus infects a person or animal infected with a "human flu virus" the chances that one of their cells will expel an H5N1 virus capable of easily infecting humans is basically a certainty. That's your worst case scenario, a bird or human infected with H5N1 at the same time they are infected with a virus which can be easily be transmitted to humans. The biggest advantage H5N1 has in becoming the next pandemic is the broad geographic range it has infected. At this point it is no longer containable. Given this, it has a very sporting chance of co-infecting something. .