Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Covad Communications - COVD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (9730)	10/31/2005 11:21:31 AM
From: rjk01	Respond to of 10485

“Way to go”. Sorry but You are stuck with your shares with no end in sight. I don’t think that any of the remaining analysis cares about this outfit right now, for that matter no one does. It’s dead till mid 06 (or some major announcement and I mean "major"). It would not shock me to see more tax dumping and price drifting to new low.

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (9730)	10/31/2005 3:21:45 PM
From: rjk01	Respond to of 10485

marketingmag.ca a horror movie, literally PPS: 1. growth-non (not a “growth” company) 2. hype: non 3. niche: non 4. profit: non

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (9730)	10/31/2005 4:50:06 PM
From: rjk01	Respond to of 10485

K hit the nail on its head > Rating: HOLD Price Target: $1.50 Market Cap: $226.4MM > • We are lowering our rating to HOLD from BUY to reflect increased > concerns related to slower-than-expected traction in the > VoIP business segment. We have lowered our price target to $1.50 from > $3 based on a 10 year DCF analysis. This revision > reflects an increased risk profile and revisions to our model. > • The bottom line is that we need to see execution before we can > regain our confidence. We continue to believe that VoIP offers > a meaningful long-term opportunity. Nonetheless, in the absence of > results and traction we cannot continue to give the > company credit as the timing of execution has grown more uncertain. > This uncertainty, together with continued losses and cash > burn, has given us reason for concern and as such, we are stepping to > the sideline. > • We do believe that the company is making the right strategic > investments for the future of the business. However, the impact is > extending the transitionary period we had described when we launched > coverage of the company in December 2004. It is clear > that Covad continues to leverage its one-of-a-kind national network > to drive its growth. Nonetheless, it is unclear when the > revenue growth from these opportunities will kick in and offset the > related costs. As such, Covad's risk profile, in our view, has > increased. > • As for quarterly results, Covad reported a mixed 3Q05, highlighted > by stronger-than-expected line additions, > lower-than-expected VoIP revenues and customers, and a narrower-than- > estimated EBITDA loss. Revenue of $112.1 million > missed our $114.0 million estimate. The EBITDA loss of $11.9 million, > however, was narrower than the $14 million loss we had > projected and the $12 million-$15 million loss range that management > had guided. EPS of $(0.11) beat our $(0.12) estimate. > • Cash burn continues and the company has returned to a net debt > balance. Our projections suggest that the company should > continue to burn cash through 2006 and as such, may indeed need to > raise additional cash next year. We note that the cash burn > is largely being driven by strategic initiatives as the company > continues to invest in various opportunities. While these > investments are, in our view, prudent, the company continues to burn > through its cash and remains unprofitable as a result. > • We have revised our estimates to reflect the quarter's results, > guidance, the elimination of an AOL launch from our model, and > slowed expectations from the VoIP business. We now estimate 2005 > revenue, EBITDA and EPS of $444 million, $(37.3) million > and $(0.40) from our prior $451 million, $(40.5) million and $(0.43) > estimates, respectively. We now estimate 2006 revenue, > EBITDA and EPS of $482 million, $(579,000) and $(0.24) from our prior > $545 million, $(3.8) million and $(0.30) estimates, > respectively.