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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (7255)	11/1/2005 11:37:10 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John, With two more rate hikes built in and then a pause - what's your read on the demand for Treasuries in 06 (with an inflation rate of 2-21/2 or better? Or 2-21/2 with energy getting cheaper - modestly. TIA Bob

To: John Pitera who wrote (7255)	11/17/2005 6:10:26 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Mike McGlone of ABN Amaro talking about an end to the FED rate tightening cycle.....we'll see about that. ----------------------------------- .....The market was prepared for a worse-than-expected fall-off in Philly Fed & that is what it got, The number, however, was not as terrible as some seen in recent weeks, so, its got that going for it...The market will continue to bang up against the highs as higher, short-covering stops attract the market & should see a late day breakout. There is a stron bullish sentiment creeping into trade (has been for a while) and as ABN's Mike McGlone noted this morning... "Recent market action is symptomatic of the end of a tightening cycle. Of course, there is no signal from the fed yet but if they continue their measured vigilance beyond what the market deems necessary, the ensuing bond market rally should be that much more lucrative. 4.25% in the cash 10yr remains the initial key target yield support. Among the many yield reversion and mean trophies, 4.25% also marked the average 10yr closing basis yield for the month of August. Sustaining back above 4.63% would signal failure. Over-weight long bond positions are suggested and sustaining back below 111.24 USZ is a suggested followup stop. Reversion bond rally (price) of the since August rate rally is expected. Fed funds futures have no doubt the target rate to be moved to 4.25% on 12/13. Ten year yields are expected to give-em a good race to that level."