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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (4888)	11/4/2005 1:19:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541477

I would agree Bush is not a true-blue conservative deep down, but he surrounded himself with enough neocons and old-guard conservatives to looks like one, and he turned to the social activist right to get his narrow 2004 victory margin. And like his father, he has now disappointed the "real right" enough to lose a chunk of their support. The center wasn't that inclined to like Bush to begin with as we see by the low victory margins at the presidential polls and his political drift before 9/11. The spending explosion turns off a lot of us too, since you can't preach conservative government then spend like a drunken sailor and jack up the deficits. Fiscally, Bush has zero credibility. I suspect that's why his SS reforms are dead in the water, and tax reform will be years away if ever. He has no political capital on this topic. The clumsy bureaucracy we see at FEMA and DHS further discredits the importance of Bush's spending binge. If you are going to build big new institutions, make them worth our while. Bush hasn't. No credit there. Iraq has divided the country more than any other topic. I don't see how anything will change enough there to bring back the "swing voters" on this topic, short of a phased US withdrawal where we claim victory and leave the Iraqis to their own devices. Since Iraq will be a long-term breeding ground for terrorists and generally unstable internally, the center is not going to see it as a victory regardless of the spin. We know that Bush's stance on most social issues is geared to appeal more to the right. I don't know any moderates who think that Bush shares their values or vision for the country. That leaves the economy, which is doing "well" based on government-supplied macroeconomic numbers but not leaving most individuals happy and confident about the future. If Bush had practiced fiscal responsibility, contained Iraq instead of invading and reached out to his opponents instead of turning Rove and Libby loose, he would be in a different situation today. Clinton's poll numbers were strong enough at the end of his presidency for him to win reelection easily. Whatever he did or stood for, an ongoing majority was comfortable with him in the White House. We can't say the same about Bush. And I don't see what he could do now to change that. Since he doesn't believe in change or self-criticism, he won't bother anyway. When we look back at the Bush presidency, we will point to choices he made that lost public support when he could have been building a lasting coalition. I know you will parse this to death in a 32-part answer - so enjoy.