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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hope Praytochange who wrote (3084)	11/4/2005 1:32:13 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

<can you point out the published source for birdflu virus transmission between human-human.> I'm not excited enough to look it up again. It's not exactly a big news item that 3 people in one family died [or maybe one just got sick] from the disease, sequentially. It's big news when the "Mexican Wave" picks up more than half a dozen people and starts surging around the stadium. At the moment, it's pretty much just individuals who catch it from birds and a few people who were closely associated with them. It's the recombination to more humanized versions which will be something to get seriously scared about. Personally, I think it's not going to amount to anything over the next 2 years because people are going nuts killing birds which might be infected. Also, the numbers of people being infected are still small, so the probability of the right hook up with a human flu in an H5N1 victim is still not too high. I suppose a single person with flu catching H5N1 at the same time would have a chance of 1 in 100 of achieving a humanized version and 1 in 10 chance of passing it on before dying or killing both infections. But I have no data on how many mixing opportunities would be needed. Virologists would probably have the odds figured out. Maybe with over 100 people infected, the odds are starting to get up there and that's why they are getting panicky. No, I don't know anything about Ligand or Henry's relationship with the stock, though I recall in 1996 that he was posting hugely on it. I don't think it's worthless. finance.yahoo.com Currently $600 million. Mqurice