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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (44743)	11/4/2005 12:14:21 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Darkness before the dawn? By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov. 4, 2005 ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The bond timing newsletters I track at the Hulbert Financial Digest have never been more bearish than they are right now. marketwatch.com{7F002CAC-FCD1-45EE-9D3A-5274CD70CF38}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbc

To: mishedlo who wrote (44743)	11/4/2005 4:25:23 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Credit outstanding is still growing at a breakneck pace as Doug Noland has pointed out again and again. Money supply growth is almost irrelevant in this credit bubble where the financial community can create liquidity virtually at will.

To: mishedlo who wrote (44743)	11/5/2005 8:00:21 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

if you can tell me that money supply is rapidly expanding here OK, i'll tell you: money supply is rapidly expanding here. Mish, it seems you're trying to take comfort by just looking at the Fed's book, but FCBs own twice as many US govt securities as the Fed. that means the growth of their book is twice as important. and their book is growing 13.6% YoY. not to mention all the gazillion other ways credit is created as people like Noland constantly point out. it is truly a testament to the power of denial in the human mind if bond bulls believe something like the housing bubble could be created in the absence of a rapidly expanding money supply. one is reminded of those remote islanders who were unable to see the Spanish galleons or whatever they were anchored right in front of them, because there was no such thing as a large ship in their tribal memory. our monetary policy is now in the hands of the FCBs. if only our foreign policy were so also... i really fear the bond bulls are in for a wipeout. i mean, the FCBs are in it because it's part of their mercantilist policy that they must give the heroin addict (the US consumer) credit to get his consumption fix. they aren't buying up our bonds because they think they're a good value; they just like to manipulate their currencies. so, i at least understand where FCBs are coming from in buying US greenturds. but my question to non-FCB bond bulls is: what's your excuse?