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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (40603)	11/4/2005 11:11:38 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rise 56,000 in Oct. - Friday, November 4, 2005 1:08:36 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. job growth slowed in October even excluding the direct impact of two monstrous hurricanes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 56,000 in October after a revised 8,000 loss in September, the agency said. The unemployment rate fell to 5% in October from 5.1% in September. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting payroll gains of about 102,000 in October. The predictions were based on assumptions that storm-related losses would be more than offset by strong job growth in the rest of the country. However, "job growth in the remainder of the country appeared to be below trend in October," said Kathleen Utgoff, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job growth had averaged about 200,000 per month before the storms The below-trend growth could be the result of indirect impacts from the storms, she said, such as higher energy costs and choked supply lines. Most economists believe the impact of the storm will be temporary, with rebuilding efforts actually adding to growth and hiring late this year and into 2006 Job growth in August and September was revised lower by a cumulative 36,000. In October, goods-producing industries created 49,000 jobs while private-sector service-producing industries lost 3,000. Manufacturing industries created 12,000 jobs, the first increase since May. Construction added 33,000, boosted by rebuilding efforts Within services, retail shed 5,000 jobs after 58,000 lost in September. Financial services added 22,000 jobs. Professional services added 12,000, including 11,000 temporary help jobs. Health and education added 11,000 jobs Among 278 industries, 50.2% were adding employees in September, the lowest since November 2003. Among 84 manufacturing industries, 41.7% were adding jobs Average hourly wages shot up 8 cents, or 0.5%, to $16.27. It was the largest monthly gain since February 2003. Average hourly earnings are thus up 2.9% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year gain since July 2003 Wage growth is a chief concern of the Federal Reserve, which fears that wage pressures could imbed an inflationary psychology in the economy. Average wages are still rising slower than inflation, however The Fed raised interest rates for a 12th straight meeting on Tuesday The average workweek was steady at 33.8 hours. Within manufacturing, average hours rose to 41 from 40.6 in September. Total hours worked in the economy were unchanged in October In a separate survey of households, the Labor Department found that unemployment dropped by 228,000 in October. Employment rose by 214,000, while 14,000 dropped out of the workforce

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (40603)	11/4/2005 11:14:15 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

"Given all that, it is hardly surprising that volatility is stirring again. What is amazing is that it's not racing down the road and barking." economist.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (40603)	11/4/2005 11:26:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

5 REASONS THE FED WILL FUMBLE IN 2006 Even with a new chief at the helm, the Fed is heading toward a policy blunder that will inflict a lot of pain on investors. Here are five big reasons why. By Jim Jubak moneycentral.msn.com The odds are now better than 60/40 that the Federal Reserve will overshoot in 2006. It now looks, to me at least, like new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will finish the inflation battle that Alan Greenspan started by raising interest rates so high that the economy starts to stall sometime next year. The Fed will then be forced to reverse course and start to cut short-term interest rates at the same measured pace that it used to raise them from the June 2004 low. Here are the five reasons I believe the Federal Reserve will give investors a painful demonstration of its all-too-human fallibility in 2006. ...

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (40603)	11/4/2005 11:45:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Oct new car registrations down 10.8 pct from a year ago Friday, November 4, 2005 11:00:55 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - New car registrations dropped by 10.8 pct from the same month a year ago, pulled down by weak consumer spending, figures from the Society on Motor Manufacturing Traders revealed The drop takes the figure in October to 152,497 units "2005 has been a tough year for the new car market," said SMMT chief executive Christopher Macgowan, adding that the downturn in consumer spending has hit dealerships across the country The weak market will be good news for buyers, however, with manufacturers and dealers continuing to "fight hard for every sale", he said

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (40603)	11/4/2005 11:51:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Oct house prices unchanged from previous month - Halifax UPDATE Friday, November 4, 2005 8:19:27 AM afxpress.com (Updating with analyst comment in final four paras) LONDON (AFX) - House prices in the UK were unchanged in October from the previous month, said the Halifax the country's biggest mortgage lender today Although that was way down on September's 1.2 pct increase it was better than market expectations of a 0.6 pct decline Meanwhile, the Halifax said prices were 3.9 pct higher on a year-on-year basis, significantly down on the 18.9 pct recorded this time last year Again, though that was down on the 4.1 pct recorded in September, it was better than expectations of a 3.7 pct increase The average seasonally-adjusted house price stands at 168,210 stg Overall, Halifax, which is part of the HBOS PLC banking group, said housing market activity continues to improve, with the number of mortgage approvals and continuing economic growth underpinning demand "The overall pattern of price movements over the past few months shows that the market has strengthened compared with earlier in the year, but the static level of prices in October suggests that we are not poised for another sustained period of sharply rising property values," said Martin Ellis, Halifax's chief economist The picture that seems to be emerging from the Halifax appears to be similar to the one painted by the Nationwide, the UK's largest building societies Though their surveys may differ on a month-on-month basis, they both appear to show that the housing market has steadied and is now posting modest price increases on a quarterly basis Earlier this week, the Nationwide said house prices increased 1.3 pct in October That more than reversed the falls the Nationwide recorded in the previous two months and was way ahead of expectations of a modest 0.2 pct increase On a year-on-year basis, the Nationwide said house prices were up 3.3 pct, nearly double the 1.8 pct recorded in September, but still way down on the 15 pct increases seen a year ago. Analysts had predicted a 2.1 pct increase "It appears that recently strengthening housing market activity -- which has been supported by August's interest rate cut -- could be starting to feed through to revive house prices," said Howard Archer at Global Insight However, he was sceptical that house prices are about to see sustained and sharp gains any time soon "Most affordability ratios are still stretched and will become more so if house prices start moving back up markedly," said Archer "Clearly though, the recent pick-up in housing market activity and the possibility that house prices could be moving back up again further reduces the chances of another near-term cut in interest rates," he added