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To: - with a K who wrote (43407)	11/16/2005 10:47:46 AM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 118717

QDEL Yahoo posts: A New Package Insert by: ewignerz Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 11/16/05 04:51 am Msg: 6678 of 6683 A NEW PACKAGE INSERT quidel.com and a TECHNICAL BULLETIN quidel.com have been issued for the QuickVue Influenza A+B test. Specific changes include: - Avian Influenza: This test has been shown to detect propagated or cultured H5N1 and other avian influenzas (bird flu). - New Performance Results: Most recent clinical study, 2005: in this multi-center, point-of-care (POC) field trial, two (2) nasal swab specimens were collected from each of a total of 122 patients. Results were compared to culture, and after discrepant results were resolved by RT-PCR, the QuickVue Influenza A+B test correctly identified 23/24 (96%) type A positive specimens, 16/22 (73%) type B positive specimens, 95/98 (97%) type A negative specimens, and 99/100 (99%) type B negative specimens. The performance of the test was further evaluated with 144 frozen, nasal wash, clinical samples. The test correctly identified 57/60 (95%) type A positive nasal wash specimens, and 81/84 (96%) negative specimens. No type B clinical specimens were evaluated in this study. Quidel's QuickVue A+B test has NOW clearly PROVEN in a CLINICAL STUDY that it has OUTSTANDING sensitivity and specificity, and it has been shown it to detect H5N1. Quidel's test is the ONLY test listed in the WHO's "list (http://www.who.int/entity/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/RapidTestInflue nza_web.pdf) of commercially available rapid diagnostic tests" that has ALL these features: - CLIA Waived (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&board=7077211&tid=qdel&sid=7077211& action=m&mid=6211) - Outstanding sensitivity and specificity (reference the new package insert) - Distinguishes between A and B - 2 year shelf life (This has got to be a big consideration for many users, since if a purchase is overestimated, Quidel's test can be used the following flu season. Other tests would have to be discarded.) - Ease of use. - Assay time of only 10 minutes Now, with obviously the BEST rapid POC test on the market and all the ongoing “bird flu” preparedness, how many more flu tests will Quidel sell this flu season? Choose a number and figure Quidel’s price: finance.messages.yahoo.com; action=m&mid=6082 Quidel's flu test has a very high profit margin. I’ve heard that it sells to distributors for about $9. It probably costs less than $2 to make. Take off an additional buck for royalties, and you can make a ball park estimate that Quidel makes $6 per flu test net profit. How many strep tests are done in the U.S. each year? About 40M to 60M. How many people are there in the world? About 6B. How may bird brains are there in the world (you may include yourself in the count)? How many flu tests did Quidel sell last year? Let’s estimate 5M. How many additional flu tests do you think Quidel will sell this year considering the "bird flu" situation? Let’s just estimate VERY, VERY CONSERVATIVELY that Quidel sells 3M more than last year. Now, this net revenue will be Quidel’s "earning surprise," since I doubt very much analysts have included it in their forecast (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=QDEL). So what's the "bird flu" "earnings surprise" worth? 3M tests X $6/test = $18M net revenue "earnings surprise" $18M/33M shares = $0.55 EPS "earnings surprise" Since this $0.55 is an "earning surprise," add it to what the analysts are forecasting for this year to get our forecast: $0.55 + $0.21 = $0.76. Choose your PE. How about 40? 40 X $0.76 = $30.40 This is a VERY, VERY basic analysis. However, it does demonstrate that when you consider the potential of the RECENTLY DEVELOPED "bird flu" rapid flu test market and the impact just a few million additional flu test sales would have on Quidel's revenue and earnings, it's easy to see how Quidel could easily sell for three times (or many more times) it's current price. The M$ QUESTION still remains: How may additional flu tests will Quidel sell because of the "bird flu."