Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (44973)	11/7/2005 5:02:33 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

From today's Fleck: I'd like to begin today's Rap with the question I am wrestling with: Whether or not the market can hold together for the rest of this year -- leaving the serious business of "the next time down" an issue for 2006. The combination of the no-news period and the "calendar" has the bulls feeling pretty bulletproof. Though I still find it hard to believe that all the people who've made that bet are going to get paid this year, the weight of their sentiment may suffice to keep serious downside action at bay until next year. If so, we might just see a giant flop-and-chop for the rest of the year (with the averages finishing plus or minus a couple percent). Of course, even if something like that scenario did play out, it doesn't mean there wouldn't be a handful of stocks that might go up a bunch, and a handful that might go down a bunch. Again, this is only a near-term scenario, as I continue to be completely convinced that the next move of any consequence will be lower. However, when you're speculating on the short side, as I do, getting the timing right is crucial. ... Berkshire Hathaway released its earnings over the weekend, and much fanfare was made of the fact that Warren Buffett reduced his currency position from about $21 billion to around $16 billion. Dollar bulls like to poke fun at him for having lost just shy of $1 billion in the first half of the year. They seem to forget that he made about $3 billion last year. Net-net, therefore, he's way ahead betting against the dollar. What I thought was particularly interesting: In the third quarter, Buffett made $29 million in the foreign-exchange arena. That suggests he probably didn't have much of a position in the yen or the euro, and what he did own obviously performed quite well -- meaning that he likely has a pretty sizable Canadian dollar position, and perhaps even a Brazilian real position.