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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (45044)	11/8/2005 12:26:40 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Nov 08 2005 12:08 trotsky (re. Simmons) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved something irks me about Simmons and all the other peak oilers: not one of them trusts that the free market will be able to solve the problem, if there is one. in essence they all call for the heavy hand of the state to intervene, as if the bureaucracy could 'create energy', or should be considered more able to deal with the question of global trade , energy conservation, alternative fuels, etc. than the market. obviously this complete humbug. the best thing the state can do is to lower regulatory barriers and allow the market to do its work. everything else is a priori condemned to failure ( as the Soviet Union's 'worker paradise' has proved in spades ) . Date: Tue Nov 08 2005 12:00 trotsky (Simmons says) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Ultimately, we have to actually create some new forms of energy that don't exist today" this is sloppy language. we simply CAN NOT 'create' energy that doesn't exist today. luckily E=mc squared, so there is in fact more than enough energy stored in the universe. it's not a question of 'creating' it, it's a question of unlocking it. Date: Tue Nov 08 2005 11:47 trotsky (@homebuilders) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved a t/a classic. they rallied back to recently broken resistance, and ahave been getting whacked ever since. today we have for the first time heard those perennial ueber-bulls and hyper-optimists from Toll brothers voice caution about next year's outlook ( it's always possible that they have actually noticed swelling inventories and falling prices. certainly their frantic insider selling of their own shares seems to suggest something along those lines ) . several of the little bubble darlings have actually broken their longer term uptrend lines by now. for reasons not readily apparent the housing index doesn't quite reflect the carnage in some of the underlying shares. e.g. HOV has gone from 73 to 45 ( was as low as 38 already ) , TOL from 59 to 34, MTH from 95 to 59, KBH from 85 to 64, and so on. BZH is a notable relative strength exception, only about 10% down from its highs. one suspects the index is held up by mathematical bias as well as the weightings of some of the better behaved components. all that said, the group looks now short term oversold. a bounce is probably not too far off, even if the bull market is over ( which in turn isn't certain yet ) .