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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (45082)	11/8/2005 2:38:07 PM
From: jackjc	Respond to of 110194

Excellent TB, your words express what I and no doubt many others feel about why we weight our real type assets above paper type assets. As for the 'goldbug' label, I only object to the bug part myself.

To: TimbaBear who wrote (45082)	11/8/2005 3:45:20 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think caricaturizing those who believe that gold prices are likely to increase from here just to clarify: i don't think everybody who owns gold or gold miners is a gold hypester. i think the hypesters are a minority, actually. and i have owned gold and miners myself quite a bit over the years. i just see them (the miners) more as trading vehicles rather than as real stores of value, like oil sands. while gold may go to $3000, therefore making stocks with 40x PEs like NEM great bargains in retrospect at today's prices, i am myself too much of a value investor and lover of energy stocks (you can even "caricaturize" me as an energy hypester, i don't mind -g-, although i am the first to admit energy will tank in a bad recession). i prefer to buy stocks with 10x or lower PEs at today's commodity prices, as opposed to stocks that will have 10x PEs at much higher prices. and i tend to think that whatever might propel gold to $1000 or $3000 or whatever will also benefit the energy sector. and if things just stay where they are (gold and oil at their current prices), i just have to like the stocks with the lower PEs much more. but that's just me... And what happens to gold priced in USD if we see similar rates? you mean if we get 14.5% real rates on the US dollar? i think gold would be toast, as would all commodities. but i think we are very far away from a world where the Fed has the cojones to push for that kind of thing. look, it's been "Softly, Softly" for 12 or 13 straight baby steps, starting at negative real rates. 14.5% real rates (say 19% nominal like Brazil) will just obliterate our debt-ridden society. i don't think it's gonna happen any time soon...