Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (26794)	11/9/2005 6:19:33 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

After BRKS reported today, there is only 1 company, KLIC, left to report for this past calendar quarter. KLIC is apparently scheduled to report later next week - so in the interest of expediency, the results for the quarter, using KLIC's estimate as the actual(which can be corrected next week as necessary), are shown below. - SEP 2005 GROUP EARNINGS SUMMARY - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR - QTR EARN EARN PCT SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF ASML 3Q 0.11 0.12 9 ASYT 2Q -0.03 0.02 ATMI 3Q 0.25 0.22 -12 BRKS 4Q -0.04 0.00 COHU 3Q 0.27 0.42 56 CYMI 3Q 0.20 0.35 75 KLAC 1Q 0.49 0.50 2 KLIC 4Q 0.18 0.18(E) LRCX 1Q 0.30 0.35 17 MTSN 3Q 0.03 0.01 -67 NVLS 3Q 0.21 0.17 -19 PHTN 4Q -0.45 -0.31 SMTL 4Q 0.07 0.09 29 TER 3Q -0.02 0.09 UTEK 3Q -0.04 0.01 VECO 3Q 0.12 0.14 17 WFR 3Q 0.29 0.25 -14 SEP05 TOTAL 1.94 2.61 35 JUN05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12 This makes the 2nd quarter of increase earnings for the stocks listed(17 of the 23 stocks in the Group). The percent of actuals achieved above the estimates(35 percent) was the highest ever over the reported period of 6 quarters. Then of course, the table can be sorted by the percent difference column as shown below. - SEP 2005 GROUP EARNINGS SUMMARY - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR - QTR EARN EARN PCT SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF CYMI 3Q 0.20 0.35 75 COHU 3Q 0.27 0.42 56 SMTL 4Q 0.07 0.09 29 VECO 3Q 0.12 0.14 17 LRCX 1Q 0.30 0.35 17 ASML 3Q 0.11 0.12 9 KLAC 1Q 0.49 0.50 2 ATMI 3Q 0.25 0.22 -12 WFR 3Q 0.29 0.25 -14 NVLS 3Q 0.21 0.17 -19 MTSN 3Q 0.03 0.01 -67 KLIC 4Q 0.18 0.18(E) PHTN 4Q -0.45 -0.31 TER 3Q -0.02 0.09 UTEK 3Q -0.04 0.01 ASYT 2Q -0.03 0.02 BRKS 4Q -0.04 0.00 SEP05 TOTAL 1.94 2.61 35 JUN05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (26794)	11/9/2005 9:13:10 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95737

Hi Don, Thank you for sharing your study. Needham has 06 EPS @ 1.80. This is a threshold EPS number historically. Every time earnings have been projected to be 1.75,on a forward earnings basis, Cohu has had a 2 for 1 split. I assume this 1.80 is considered by management to be a doable number.If so I genuinely expect a 2 for 1 split in 06. With a past high of 62 ish, a 2 for 1 split that reaches up to 30-35 is very conceivable. The beauty of the backend is,unit count drives capacity expansion.Even if ASP's drop,the number of required testers/testhandlers must grow almost exponentially (with unit count expanding 225 -240 percent with the transition from 200mm to 300 mm). This is a low profile,almost under the technology horizon, neat sector. I've enjoyed this sector since around 85.Its growth is exceptional and Cohu has redefined the leading technology several times. As your study suggests - it is a neat stock to be aware of and I do truly believe it has yet to gain favor. No debt,a ton of cash and earnings growth leading the chip unit count to all time highs - no one really talking about it but us SI Wennerstrom thread OLDIES YET!! Thanks again and I hope you enjoy the ride up with me. Thanks!! Bob