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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wmwmw who wrote (8342)	11/9/2005 9:40:44 PM
From: c_hl	Respond to of 12411

NDX 1700 in Dec is very likely.

To: wmwmw who wrote (8342)	11/9/2005 10:13:04 PM
From: c_hl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

If NDX reaches 1730 in Jan, that is like 2-3pnts/day. So daytrade may not be a bad idea.

To: wmwmw who wrote (8342)	11/10/2005 10:47:15 AM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

"Another bit of self-talk comes from a sign that a veteran trader once had on his wall. It said, simply, “It ain't gonna happen that way.” It's a constant reminder to allow for uncertainty, and not to form detailed “scenarios” about future market movements. That one takes a while to learn. There's a constant tendency to want to plan out the market's future course, draw trendlines, plan on a strong second-half, etc. Just like our detailed concepts about what we need to be happy can often make us miserable when something seems missing, our scenarios about the specific future path of the market can drive us absolutely out of our minds if the market moves the “wrong” way. Write this down. There is no “wrong” direction for the market. The market absolutely doesn't care about the scenarios investors have carefully planned for it. It ain't gonna happen that way. It's important to understand that I'm talking about specific scenarios. There's nothing wrong with saying, for example, that stocks are priced to deliver unsatisfactory long-term returns. Or saying that, given some set of conditions, the market has historically performed well on average. When you phrase your investment views in terms of average outcomes and ranges of possible error, you're doing what you should be doing, which is carefully analyzing expected returns, and also allowing for uncertainty. In contrast, when you phrase your investment views in terms of what the market is going to do, in this particular instance, between now and some reasonably close future point in time, you've formed a scenario. The problem is simple – over short horizons (generally anything under a couple of years), the potential forecast error absolutely overwhelms any specific forecast you can make. It ain't gonna happen that way." hussmanfunds.com