Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wmwmw who wrote (8354)	11/10/2005 6:29:04 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

I do get it. Creating scenarios does not improve investment outcomes, it actually has a negative effect. And I am certainly not discouraging communication. I am suggesting that we engage in more profitable forms of communication and I am trying to share some painful lessons. My name is Joe and I am a scenario-builder...I cannot avoid the tempation sometimes. In fact, this is an even better example: Message 21854811 Whenever I do that GZ always puts me back on the path of good investment outcomes. I was hoping to help you do the same. Why do I believe that scenarios are actually damaging? First of all,I think there is a tendency to become blinded by scenarios. One easily forms an emotional attachment and it is difficult to exit when you are on the wrong side of the trade. That is why I like the spiral so much. The scenario makes it personal and emotional and both of those things are bad in trading. Secondly, I think that the intention of scenario-building is not to gain a good investment outcome. You may be an exception, but I think that we generally build scenarios because we want to be remarkable. What is most problematic is that there is a reward for this behavior. It is quite easy to celebrate one's remarkable efforts and kind of ignore one's poor showings. Then, we feel that this whole scenario-building thing leads to positive outcomes and we are tempted to try to get our time in the spotlight once again. Imagine that you are about to be attacked by a bear or trying to tackle a wide receiver. It is good to be aware of all of the possibilities. If you become attached to one scenario, you will always be caught on the wrong foot. Finally, I think that scenario building is harmful to these communities. Posters tend to get emotional and personal in defnding their scenarios like religious beliefs. At its worst, it leads to the whole guru thing.