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To: slacker711 who wrote (182659)	11/13/2005 5:19:14 PM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

OT RE: " I'm 30 " Well then, congratulations for being only 23 years old when you joined posting on SI full-time as a full-time investor. Am also very impressed with your knowledge of the memory industry which was remarkably high in 1999 when you joined SI - as if you had worked in the memory industry for decades, truly an amazing capability for a 23-year old - did you graduate from college when you were 16? It's equally impressive you like golf and baseball - most guys in their late 20s or 30s seem to be more interested in rock-climbing, skiing, hiking or some other extreme sport. What clubs do you do hip-hop dancing? [ cough : ) ] RE: " We'll see how China deals with a recession or a depression." That will be minor compared to Avian Flu - China will destroy the world with their inability to manage it openly. RE: "Will they be able to make the hard choices necesary to revive an economy?" Efficient Communism makes the hard choices, Argumentative Democracy does not. RE: "How will the people react when they are getting laid off by state owned enterprises?" You misstate the problem. An uprising is unlikely to come from current industry workers (whether state or private), but from country labor. RE: "words creative destruction arent something you associate with China" While innovation feeds the future, 90% of the current financial gains in this world are probably based on old technology or Copy ., not innovation. RE: "Note that the words "efficient communism" just picks the winners." Agreed, that's why "Efficient" is used as the prephase. I think Saturn's post said it very elogantly and his entire post is 100% accurate. However, my focus is on the best performers not the statistical averages. RE: "If a country fails" China is at a substantially higher risk of failing than India, because Efficiency came at the high cost (risk) of not enabling a proper outlet for the country labor to channel their views. When everyone is told to be quiet, that may help efficiency until a revolt happens, so this risk is very real. Whereas India has more insurance to ward off any type of revolt - all that arguing at least has gotten the issues out on the table - the worst thing that happens there is they vote in the Congress Party that represents the people rather than businesses (but whose leader happens to be the smartest financial whiz in the world but who is unfortunately stuck in the world's most inefficient infrastructure system.) I tend to think China's gamble is to continue driving their GDP hard and fast so it grows quick enough to bring country labors out from under before they revolt. However, China has no credibility with Avian flu- would nearly guarantee you if there is an Avian flu outbreak this will be the impetus for the beginning of a huge revolt in China, ultimately wreaking havoc on the world markets. My friend said all of the flu's spawn from a region in China where his family came from. My other friend was over there in the spot of the Sars outbreak when China was blocking the WHO website prior to Times reporting a SARS outbreak in China. No one can trust China on this. RE: "I must be missing something." Insert Democracy where I mistakenly typed capitalism and you'll get it. RE: "The reforms in 1990 were the start." Both India and China were at the same juncture point in the 70s - yet China is now 2X better than India and India has suffered many more deaths than China. Simply put, so far, China's Efficient Communism has been better than India per wage per capita and death numbers. RE: "We wont know for 20-50 years" We now know how it worked out 30 years after India and China started at the same juncture point. China is 2X better than India. What we don't know is, will China come tumbling down with one huge nasty revolt - which it is at higher risk for - I think there's maybe a 35% chance of this happening. Only a 2% chance of that happening in India because India has so many decades of experience with handling a wide range of diverse POVs from its various states. So, while India may be slow and have the world's worst infrastructure, China's speed has a larger potential for revolt risks. But I'd definitely live and work in a China any day over India - that is for sure - Argumentative Democracy w poor infrastructure is nasty compared to Efficient Communism (or Authoritarian, whatever you prefer to call it is fine.) Regards, Amy J