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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (3099)	11/11/2005 9:20:07 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24208

U.C.-San Diego economist Hamilton weighs in on 'peak oil' and the world economy (video and transcript) James Hamilton, American Enterprise Institute via E&ETV Many analysts have begun speculating that world oil production may be nearing its apex. Will energy companies be able to keep up with rising demand from the United States, China and other countries? If accurate, what exactly does the so-called "peak oil" phenomenon mean for the world economy, and how will consumers and businesses respond? In a speech at the American Enterprise Institute last week, James Hamilton, an economist with the University of California-San Diego, took an in-depth look at these questions, and more. Conclusion: So what should we expect to see from here? Well I'm persuaded we're going to see the price of oil rise over time. I think that this trend we've seen over the last couple years is the beginning of that long run reality that I think is unavoidable. That the industrialization of China and India and other parts of the world is for real. That's adding a very significant kick to world demand. And even if it's true that we do have the resources to produce some more oil for the next five years, the next 10 years, I can't imagine it being extrapolated at these rates that far into the future. So I think that what we've seen of the last couple of years is not just a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, it's a fundamental response to the fact that this was a major source of demand. And we really have to learn to live with it. So I expect to see the price of oil rise over time, rise relative to inflation. I don't know for sure that's going to happen over the next couple of years. We could see a retraction in response to these demand adjustments, but I see a long run trend as up because the man has to be contained. A second thing that I think we can probably count on is that these temporary disruptions are going to become more severe. We have to worry more about hurricanes now because that's the place we have to look for oil. And we're more vulnerable to supply disruptions now than we were when all the oil came out of Texas because the places we're getting oil from are inherently more hazardous and more subject to disruptions than Texas. And a third prediction I'm comfortable offering for you is that while all of this is going on who is the public going to blame? Well the public is going to blame the greedy oil companies, doesn't have anything to do is apply, doesn't have anything to do with demand, doesn't have anything to do with geography or geopolitics or weather. That's something I think we can count on. So in a nutshell, what is the peak oil going to look like? I think it's going to look like our sources of oil are less and less attractive. We're more and more vulnerable to disruptions. We pay a higher and higher price. In other words I think peak oil is going to look a whole lot like where we are right now. (10 November 2005) Economist James Hamilton has been engaging in online conversations with the Peak Oil community over the last few months. eande.tv