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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (8366)11/12/2005 1:59:13 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12411
 
Bob,
I am experimenting with the spiral, that's why I'm posting
on this thread. I'll leave, I don't care.

I have a LT bearish view, simply because
there is nothing yet to say we are not in a second wave of
the bear market, which started in 2000. We have yet to exceed 2000 highs. Nasdaq is 60% below those. I have a mid-term
bearish view, since the rising wedge has been broken.

We are currently on a buy signal, initiated by the break of
the down spiral
at around 1170 on October, 13. The up spiral (October high
and low) going through Oct.,13, and predicting a rise into
mid-November has not been
broken. I am plotting it using a correct parametric math
formula, and the scaling from barchart.com, so mine is exactly
the GZ spiral, what it should be.

The levels for SP cash next week are:

Mon. 1218
Tue. 1224
Wed. 1232
Thur. 1242
Fr. 1266, WALL.

If the SP trades below these levels next week on any day,
it will give a sell signal. It will give a sell on
Friday next week/following Monday no matter what. That's what
I'm talking about. I have no position in this market,
but I will short the break of the up spiral.

The down spiral predicting a fall to 1120 wall (cash) into
December, 21 is still tentative, and will need to be
revised as we go. I have looked at many scenarios of the
break of the up spiral next week. They all give
a wall from 1120 to 1150, depending on the high made next
week.



To: robert b furman who wrote (8366)11/15/2005 12:12:46 AM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 12411
 
I think I found my reason for the bear move -
credit default swaps on GM are up 250% in the past week