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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (2035)11/15/2005 3:42:02 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217768
 
<<diesel fuel mixed with beeswax....>>

... I will stay with chicken soup for the mo :0)

<<Re: extended family - How effective have you been in getting them to make appropriate investments, buy Tamiflu, and take other measures ?>>

... on investment, they are selective about what I recommend. On Tamilflu, I bought for them. On flu shot, I scared them into it ;0)

HK is getting agitated over the flu thing, plenty of warnings about hand washing and mask wearing, on TV and all around. So much so that my wife told me yesterday that we ought to start shopping for real estate so that we can make quick decisions when the time is right.

I think the flu thing will be, in Maurice's language, a fizzer.

<<Platinum>>

Folks in Asia seem really into platinum and white gold for jewelry. It is a fashion thing. I think the demand at Pt = USD 1,000 is OK, and as the price goes higher, demand could actually rise.

Also, when China / India requires cat converters, watch out.

<<Also, $ 1000 is a BIG ROUND NUMBER, where I expect lots of selling and price resistance>>

... yes, and a good solid number it is, until gold starts to catch on and catch up, making Pt at 1k seem like a bargain :0)

<<Monetary reset will tend to be process, not an event ... How will it unfold ?>>

... I figure yes on the process, but historically speaking, there are certain defining events that act as milestones for the process. We can imagine and look forward to:

(a) parliamentarians, financial players, and the press shout "more printed paper, looser liquidity spigot, ..." as they now do;

(b) people lining up to buy assets of one flavor and then another variety, as they no do;

(c) plant closures and business shutdowns, caused by malinvestment and wild speculation, as is now happening;

(d) competitive devaluation and trade acrimony, encouraged by the politicians devoid of imagination and stuffed full of ignorance, as is now taking place

(e) cost of money starts rising ... oops, it has started, for the first round

(f) more of the same of all of the above, round and around several more times

(g) more destitute people and desperate families, destruction of the middle class (there has always been a middle class, statistically speaking)

(h) confidence event marker

(i) crisis event marker

(j) casualties (personal, corporate, nation, region) mount

(k) more of the same of all of the above, round and around several more times

(l) systemic collapse, ala Argentina 2000s or France 1700s, namely debt repudiation, accompanied by political radicalism and mass chaos

(m) monetary reset, either before war breaks out or after everything gets pulverized.

<<Euro can be a useful excahnge medium for buying undervalued property in "Eastern Europe">>

... too small an opportunity relative to the size of the obligation, I fear, and they may need to re-arm, for Russia rises again off the backs of energy pricing.

<<2006 ? It should be a good year. Expectations are low....>>

... I only hope to not lose anything. Very low expectation indeed :0)

Chugs, J



To: energyplay who wrote (2035)11/15/2005 5:04:29 AM
From: Snowshoe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217768
 
>>Maybe each commodity gets 15 minutes of fame<<

Copper hits record amid reports of China exposure
news.yahoo.com

By Richard McGregor in Beijing, Rebecca Bream in London and Kevin Morrison in Johannesburg
Mon Nov 14, 2:05 PM ET

World copper prices hit new highs on Monday after speculators seized on reports that China, the world's largest user, may be forced to buy large quantities of the metal to cover a short position.

Copper, which has risen 30 per cent this year, touched an all-time high of $4,132 a tonne during trading on the London Metal Exchange on Monday, having risen sharply on Friday.

Metal traders said market speculation had been fuelled by the mysterious disappearance of trader Liu Qibing, who they believed worked for China's State Reserve Bureau, which manages the country's strategic commodities reserves.

According to the Dow Jones newswire, Mr Liu went missing after building up a short position of between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes of copper metal he had sold without owning, in the hope he could buy it back more cheaply at a later date. Instead, copper prices have continued to rally.


Last week, China tried to cool the market by announcing it would sell 20,000 tonnes of copper on Wednesday and saying that it held 1.3m tonnes of copper in stockpiles. But these announcements from a normally secretive operator stoked market rumours that the SRB was actually short of copper and was trying to depress prices in order to avoid a large trading loss.

LME traders said on Monday Mr Liu was well known in the market as a trader for the SRB, but the SRB denied that it employed him. An SRB spokesman in Beijing said: "We don't have anyone on staff named Liu Qibing." The spokesman said the SRB had undertaken trades on the London Metal Exchange "in an effort to stabilise domestic copper prices".

Although Mr Liu has not been active in the market for some weeks, a Shanghai-based analyst for a foreign securities firm said on Monday night that he was at his home in the city after being ordered to stay away from work. "He has turned off his mobile phone but he is ok," the analyst said.

The analyst, who asked not be named, said Mr Liu was being forced to take responsibility for the trades that had resulted in losses of "several million dollars".

Mr Liu, who is in his 40s, was described as an experienced trader, with at least a decade of experience in the market, and who in the past had been very successful.

A Shanghai-based futures broker, who also asked not to named, said the SRB had been sending "very confusing signals" to the market. "Even though it is meant to be a market stabiliser, it is actually speculating on copper prices," the trader said.

Market uncertainty could continue for some weeks. Traders said even if China had enough copper to cover any short position, it might face problems shipping the metal to LME warehouses in time. They said the next key delivery date was December 21.