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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (713217)	11/15/2005 9:36:34 AM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 769670

Global Energy Demand Inflated By Developing Nation Subsidies BY KIRK SHINKLE INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 11/14/2005 Soaring oil prices are finally forcing consumers and governments to face down some hard realities — and a few bad policies. In many fast-growing, energy-inefficient countries, governments uses tax dollars to keep fuel costs at below-market prices. That encourages more demand and takes away the incentive to be more efficient. That increased demand pushes global prices higher. But those government subsidies have been on the decline this year. For several nations, this summer's big spike in gas prices might be the death knell. Big oil importers such as Indonesia and Thailand have buckled under the weight of costly crude. Crude Prices Falling Analysts say that's helped moderate, if not halt, the ongoing rise in global oil costs. After peaking near $70 a barrel in late August, crude prices have fallen below $59, though hurricanes, price-driven declines in U.S. gasoline demand and other factors played a major role as well. "It's not a coincidence that oil prices seem to have peaked around the same time . . . some Asian countries were taking away their subsidies for a variety of oil products," said Seth Kleinman, market analyst at PFC Energy. On Oct. 1, Indonesia slashed its energy subsidies. Diesel prices doubled and kerosene trebled, even after a similar 30% hike in May. Thailand dropped its subsidies entirely back in June. The subsequent 30% jump in prices pushed July demand down 16%. Malaysia, an oil exporter, has raised prices four times this year. The political pain of cutting such programs is palpable. Look at Indonesia. Despite lump-sum cash payments to some 15 million poor families, the pain of higher costs will be real for much of the nation of 220 million, half of whom live on less than $2 a day. Inflation is soaring. Indonesia's consumer price index rose nearly 18% in October from a year ago, prompting interest rate hikes and fear of slower economic growth. "They have been the sort of the poster child for how things could go wrong in a country that subsidizes energy," said Farid Abolfathi, managing director with researcher Global Insight. But Indonesia had little choice. Before the cuts, subsidies were eating nearly a third of the nation's $53 billion in annual revenues. Still, many governments around the world continue to keep energy costs below market levels. Oil producers in the Middle East continue generous subsidies, though state-run Iraqi TV recently said the government would double or triple fuel prices on Dec. 31. The International Energy Agency said energy demand in the Mideast and North Africa will more than double by 2030 as fast-growing populations take advantage of heavy subsidies. China A Mixed Bag In China, the government's role remains murky. But price caps on gasoline and other products have led to shortages, analysts said. Some refiners have simply shut down rather than produce at a thin margin, or even a loss. They pay market price for oil, but must sell at an artificially low one. That may actually have kept demand — and global prices — lower since refiners are producing just enough to keep the economy running. An end to price caps by itself would curb demand, but encouraging more refining would end shortages and spur more use. "It's somewhat paradoxical in China. One of the reasons Chinese oil demand this year has been so low is that by keeping these price caps in place it's meant that refining crude is a losing proposition for domestic Chinese refiners," said PFC's Kleinman. "They've opted to do as little as possible of it because they're losing money on every barrel." Still, the widespread subsidy cuts across Asia have made a difference. Excluding China and the non-OECD nations in Asia, PFC Energy estimates demand for oil will rise by just over 150,000 barrels per day this year compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in 2004. International organizations are warning nations not to take drastic measures. The Asian Development Bank, the G-7 nations and the European Central Bank have all issued reports that increased subsidy programs could upset trade and the world economy. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet noted, "Subsidies and artificial price caps that constrain the price of oil and oil products have an adverse effect on the global market and should be avoided."

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (713217)	11/15/2005 12:33:06 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Revealing Behavior in 'Orangutan Heaven and Human Hell' By CONNIE ROGERS People keep asking Carel van Schaik if there is anything left to discover in fieldwork. "I tell them, 'A lot,' " said Dr. van Schaik, the Dutch primatologist. "Look at gorillas. We've been studying them for decades, and we just now have discovered that they use tools. The same is true for orangutans." In 1992, when Dr. van Schaik began his research in Suaq, a swamp forest in northern Sumatra, orangutans were believed to be the only great ape that lived a largely solitary life foraging for hard-to-find fruit thinly distributed over a large area. Researchers thought they were slow-moving creatures - some even called them boring - that didn't have time to do much but eat. But the orangutans Dr. van Schaik found in Suaq turned all that on its head. More than 100 were gathered together doing things the researchers had never seen in the wild. Dr. van Schaik worked there for seven years and came to the radical conclusion that orangutans were "every bit as sociable, as technically adept and as culturally capable" as chimpanzees. His new conclusions about how apes - and humans - got to be so smart are detailed in his latest book, "Among Orangutans: Red Apes and the Rise of Human Culture." Now a professor of anthropology at the University of Zurich and the director of its Anthropological Institute and Museum, Dr. van Schaik discussed his findings in a recent telephone interview from his office there. Q. What were you looking for in the Suaq swamp? A. We'd been working in a mountainous area in northern Sumatra, and it felt as if we were missing the full picture of orangutan social organization. All higher primates - all of them - live in distinct social units except for the orangutan. That's a strong anomaly, and I wanted to solve it. Q. How was Suaq different from other orangutan habitats? A. It was an extraordinarily productive swamp forest with by far the highest density of orangutans - over twice the record number. The animals were the most sociable we'd ever seen: they hang out together, they're nice to each other, they even share food. Q. But you almost left this orangutan habitat after a year? A. We'd never worked in a place like this, and it was exhausting. To get into the swamp where they were we would wade through water - sometimes chest deep, two hours in, two hours out every day. There were countless species of mosquitoes. It was what I call orangutan heaven and human hell. But then someone noticed that they were poking sticks into tree holes. It sounded like tool use, so we decided to build boardwalks in the swamp, and things got a lot easier. Q. Were orangutans using tools? A. It turned out Suaq had an amazing repertoire of tool use. They shape sticks to get at honey and insects. Then they pick another kind of stick to go after the scrumptious fat-packed seeds of the neesia fruit. One of them figured out that you could unleash the seeds with a stick and that was a big improvement in their diet. Lean times are rare at Suaq, not only because the forest is productive, but because the orangutans can get to so much more food by using tools. So they can afford to be more sociable. Q. How did you discover that the tool use is socially transmitted? A. Well, one way to prove it is to see if the orangutans use tools everywhere the neesia tree exists. This was in the late 90's. Swamps were being clear-cut and drained everywhere, and the civil war in Aceh was spreading. I felt like an anthropologist trying to document a vanishing tribe. It turned out that in the big swamps on one side of a river, the orangutans do use tools, and in the small swamp on the other side, they don't. Neesia trees and orangutans exist in both places. But the animals can't cross the river, so the knowledge hadn't spread. At that point, the penny dropped and I realized their tool use was cultural. Q. So your discovery that the orangutans learned tool use from one another explains "the rise of human culture" part of your book's subtitle? A. Well, yes. Orangutans split off from the African lineage some 14 million years ago. If both chimps and orangutans make tools, our common great ape ancestor probably had the capacity for culture. Q. I always thought we got smart after we came down from the trees. A. Actually orangutans are the largest arboreal mammal and have no predators up in the trees so they live a very long time - up to 60 years in the wild - and have the slowest life history of any nonhuman mammal including elephants and whales. A slow life history is key to growing a large brain. The other key to intelligence is sociability. Q. Were orangutans more social in the past? A. I guess the rich forest areas that allowed them to live in groups were much more common in the past - they're the ones that are best for rice growing and farming - but there's no way of knowing for sure. Q. If social inputs make you smarter, why aren't monkeys cleverer? A. One thing we know is that being close to others isn't enough. Highly tolerant sociability is important - that you can be relaxed next to others. You need to be able to focus on what your neighbor is doing and not worry about whether he is going to sneak something or beat up on you. It's that kind of social tolerance that is common to all great apes. It's rare in monkeys - except cebus monkeys; they're tool users, long-lived and socially very tolerant. Q. You end your book with a bleak picture of the future of orangutans because of habitat conversion and illegal logging. Since then there's been a devastating tsunami and people need to cut down even more trees to put roofs over their heads. What does the future look like now? A. One way to help people in Sumatra would be to donate wood on a large scale. But things may be better in Borneo. There's a new Indonesian president, and in the last few months it looks as if the government is serious about cracking down on illegal logging. That leaves me more hopeful.