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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (45550)11/15/2005 1:04:59 PM
From: John Vosilla  Respond to of 110194
 
So true. It's already started happening in many midwest markets where folks were never bailed out by appreciation and couldn't borrow more money against the equity in their homes even though credit has been loose. The shit really hits the fan when you have very tight credit, an illiquid market and a fall in prices..

I read some studies that the average cash out per homeowner per year works out to $20K in the GWB era as compared to just $3k in the 1990's. If you take out the older crowd and flyover country RE my guess is a large percentage of folks say under 45-50 years old in the bubble markets have been taking out an average of $30-40k per yr since 2001.



To: ild who wrote (45550)11/15/2005 2:25:04 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Respond to of 110194
 
Message 21887109

as you can see from this post, I am suggesting that it does not matter which drives what. We already have an embedded time release event that will happen. Given the interest rates of today, I suppose you can interpret that as credit driving RE.

The next step of my digging is going to be related to liquidity. If the credit risk buyers started taking big hits, there will be no one to take the riskiest tranches. What is that going to do to the rates?