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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (45556)	11/15/2005 1:32:15 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Well put and non-circular: perhaps "the only thing we have to fear, is not fearing fear", <g>. 4 week auction results, posts 53 and 55: wallstreetexaminer.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (45556)	11/15/2005 1:46:59 PM
From: anachronist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Heinz sure likes these hyperbolic statements. like his "death warrant has been signed on Google" proclamation about 120 points ago. unfortunately, his blanket aphorisms are full of bedbugs. there is no magic Crisis Fairy out there who ensures that a crisis will not come to pass if only enough people worry about I think he is being glib. I take his statement to mean the following: If the majority of people recognize something as a forthcoming crisis, they will change their behavior to mitigate the damage. In so doing, their actions in aggregate will minimize the damage such a crisis will inflict. When a crisis is unlooked for, or in the case of Katrina only looked for by a few, no such mitigating actions will have taken place. Therefore, the crisis unlooked for is always much worse. Its like the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of the social science, observation of a phenominae changes its characteristics.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (45556)	11/15/2005 2:34:05 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

"the crisis that everybody fears is never the crisis that actually happens." Heinz sure likes these hyperbolic statements. like his "death warrant has been signed on Google" proclamation about 120 points ago. unfortunately, his blanket aphorisms are full of bedbugs. there is no magic Crisis Fairy out there who ensures that a crisis will not come to pass if only enough people worry about it. it seems particularly bizarre that Heinz brings out this aphorism based on the mild winter and "crisis averted" for natural gas. as if fear of a harsh winter somehow causes a mild winter to occur. I believe you are starting to take him too seriously and too literally and attempt to apply what is intended to be a specific statement about a specific market at a specific point in time as a broad blanket that is to be applied in every case everywhere. As for "there is no magic Crisis Fairy out there who ensures that a crisis will not come to pass if only enough people worry about it.", without using the words "magic fairy" Heinz and I have discussed the point you raise many times and I am sure he would agree with you about it. That said, in the typical case, I think his statement is true. Perhaps a good example is this: Two years ago the FED was worried about deflation. Now after 12 rate hikes and a housing market that has clearly stalled the FED is worried about inflation. Which is more likely? Even if one think inflation is the answer, it is silly to be more worried about it now than when rates were 1% and housing was booming nonstop. OTOH no matter how many people that start worrying about a housing decline, once it starts I would think he would agree that it would have a long long way to drop no matter how many are worried about it. Worrying about it will not stop it until it plays out. Thus I will repeat my opening paragraph: I believe you are starting to take him too seriously and too literally and attempt to apply what is intended to be a specific statement about a specific market at a specific point in time as a broad blanket that is to be applied in every case everywhere. After all you are reading one hell of a lot into a two or three line statement. As for Google, he was wrong, big deal. So were many others. Let me fix the statement so that it is correct. the crisis that everybody fears is usually not the crisis that happens. I believe that is what he meant and you are getting overly hyped up over the word "never", something I am quite sure he did not mean for anyone to take literally. Now let's turn to natural gas. The market spiked up in response to Katrina. Everyone feared a huge explosion in prices up to 20 when it soared to 15. Now January is back to 12.3. Well perhaps at 15 the market had already priced in not only tight supplies but bad weather as well. Thus even IF bad weather comes the fear of a spike to 20 just may have been more than overdone. If fear is extreme enough heading into winter, bad weather might not matter. I believe that is the concept Heinz is referring to while you portray it as if "fear of a harsh winter somehow causes a mild winter to occur", a statement I am sure Heinz would call preposterous, yet you attempt to attribute that to him. Mish