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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (41162)	11/15/2005 3:36:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan. It is Tuesday, November 15th and the markets are closed- Corn: We began the week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report showing 39 m.b. were inspected for near term export up 3 m.b. from the week prior and 2 m.b. over a year ago. Year to date inspections beginning the new grain marketing year September 1st are up 2 m.b. over the year prior. It is a friendly to good demand signal but not big enough to call bullish. Monday night’s crop progress report all but brought an end to harvest showing 95% of our projected 11 b.b. crop is now in. corn firmed up Monday and Tuesday as the trade continues to come to grip with the end of harvest no longer pressuring cash prices and demand fundamentals being at least friendly to pricing. Funds were the big short covers of over 7000 contracts. We will continue to hear how the upside movement is limited due to heavy harvest stocks and ending stocks next year’s to be the third highest in 20 years. It is going to take all year to make a dent there, but markets are still seasonal and November should continue to see firm cash prices as growers lock the remaining harvest up on the farm for better prices later and demand continues to improve over last year, with ethanol production up and better feed use domestically pulling us off harvest lows. Near term small speculators still hold over 50 thousand short contracts. They have 10 days to buy back before December deliveries begin and we should expect some covering ahead of our Thanksgiving holiday closings. Support on March lies at 2.09 and resistance 2.16 then 2.20. Bean: Monday began with our weekly export inspection report showing 20.1 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export off 14 m.b. from the week prior and 25 m.b. below a year ago. I was disappointed on the low number and thought it would be better the week following our monthly USDA report. Though it is a weak demand indicator for this past week the trade still believes demand will exceed a year ago. Regardless, the market was 3 cents higher Monday before the inspection number and 4 cents lower minutes after it. Today Tuesday was mixed on prices most of the day as bulls buy dips on seasonal harvest low indicators and bears sell chart resistance. With harvest complete and November futures now expired. Traders now focus on South American weather in Argentina and Brazil. Brazil is now 38% planted and should wind up at month’s end. January and February is their key development months. December is not a critical month as it is used to develop roots and stands but traders will be watching closely to see if current dry conditions in Argentina and central Brazil expand. Currently there is no weather premium built in but one 80% or more is seeded the market will trade weather solely. In the meantime there remains much concern over potential export loss of feed grains to Asian markets fighting the Asian bird flu virus. January beans have support at 5.80 and resistance at 6.00. March support is 5.90 and resistance 6.06. With no fresh fundamental supply news, chart action looks to prevail. With large speculators mainly long beans we can not rely on short covering into month’s end to pull us up. Speculators and or funds will not pile on long unless resistance is broken leaving a test of support reasonable near term. Wheat: Wheat started the week Monday with our weekly export inspection report showing 15.1 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export down 2 m.b. from the week prior and 5 m.b. below a year ago. Year to date inspections are off 52 m.b. versus the year prior and just another long line of negative demand reports the last month. Monday’s crop condition report put our winter wheat crop at 56% in good to excellent condition down 1% from the week prior and 78% G-E a year ago. Kansas our number one wheat producer improved 4% to 68% G-E but Oklahoma fell 6% and Texas 6% from the week prior at 50 and 28% G-E respectively. The far southwest needs to be watched closely into month’s end as we go dormant. This led to a higher open today Tuesday but continued talk of weak demand brought sellers in by mid-session. March wheat has major support at 3.25. A close under here and 3.20 is next stop. First resistance is 3.33, 3.36 then 3.44. The only hope for a rally is short covering as C.B.T. short contracts total over 90 thousand contracts. Put buy stops on March futures at 5.34 incase funds begin to cover. End.