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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (126139)	11/17/2005 12:27:44 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Interesting question. That chart reflects the action of 40 trading days - and those are the same 40 days whether you look at daily candles, or compress the intraday data. Often, more detailed charts may add insight. I think in this case we are able to see that the down and up moves were "three-wavers" - which is suggestive that the entire construction is corrective in nature, and therefore the eventual resolution is likely to be bullish. I say "likely", because there is no certainty -- but still, it is a nice piece of evidence to be able to put on the scale. Everyone keeps looking for the "correct" count. That is a fiction... we can only recognize a "correct" count after the fact. The important thing is to be good at estimating probabilities - and, very importantly, to be able to recognize early on when the theory is wrong and needs to be changed. I think that Elliott Waves tend to become less useful at both extremes, very small - and very large. Small wiggles will cause more (small) whipsaws, but very large counts are not practical either, because it may take too long to get the answers. Robert Prechter is a great expert, but he is a good example of how costly it may become if one gets involved too deeply with some particular version of the Very Big picture. edit - chart in question: stockcharts.com[p,a]ecclyyay[d40][pb50!b200][vc60][ilp14,3,3][J55205563,Y]&listNum=1