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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (44722)	11/16/2005 10:53:19 PM
From: Incitatus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I'd say RE is overvalued in the vast majority of the country. Assuming you are using price/rent and similar valuation measurements.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (44722)	11/17/2005 10:51:44 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

In probably three fourths of the country RE is fairly or even undervalued today. i think it is overvalued in many areas outside of the egregious coastal bubbles, but the high prices on the coasts make inland prices look reasonable by comparison, even if they aren't. many houses in central Austin, e.g., have doubled since 2000 thanks to the credit bubble which allowed lifetime renters to buy houses with their next rent check. i think there was a secular shift to capitalizing house values based on 5% ARMs with 40% or more of disposable income, compared to 8% 30yr fixed with 30% of disposable income back in the early to mid-1990s. if that gets unwound a lot of inland areas will be vulnerable.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (44722)	11/17/2005 5:22:04 PM
From: Micawber	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Thanks for the reply. But hey I'm probably at ground zero of the most vulnerable of all, the new high end condo market in South Florida I agree with you- the high end condo market in S. Florida is ripe for a correction. To quote this guy Marcin, "But if you keep reporting that as news, you need to buy a clue". I can tell you that I am involved in several large land deals in Central Florida, and I assure you that the big boys are still buying large tracts of ground for lower end stuff with both hands. Does that mean I would buy the homies? Hell no, but I sure will sell to them. I don't know where the overall market is going, and I don't really care. I don't have all the answers like so many on this board seem to have. I don't have an agenda, I don't have a housing boom or crash blog, and don't have the time or inclination to crow like a bull, or rub my hands together ghoulishly whining that the world is going to end. My agenda is to observe what is going on in the markets in which I am active and try to make a living in this business. I occasionally read this board for amusement and rarely for enlightenment. It's obvious that many on this board are buddies from years of posting on this and other boards. Many seem to be permanently bearish on everything, and appear to be convinced that the world is going to hell. Even more interesting, many seem to have the feeling that being bearish on the homies is somehow contrarian. Huh? Has anybody taken a cursory look at the Yahoo boards for the homies? They are without exception predominately STRONG SELL sentiments, and have been that way for the past several months. That's quite a contrarian position, when you're in agreement with the Yahoos of the world. I find that very amusing.