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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (3155)	11/17/2005 1:21:07 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24225

Maybe this is an investment idea :O) store.yahoo.com

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (3155)	11/17/2005 1:38:33 AM
From: manalagi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24225

Rat: thanks for the thread where I can always count on you to keep abreast the state of energy. Since lately I have sizable investment in the energy sector, knowing what's going on is a must. Here is an investment idea: the stock price of Marathon Oil (MRO) is about the same as the price of oil. Right now both are around $ 58. If you believe that oil will not drop below $ 50 come January 2007, then you can play this game using OPM (Other People's Money): Sell jan07 puts on MRO strike price $ 55. For every 2 puts sold, buy 1 call jan07 call MRO strike price $ 50. In essence the proceeds of 2 puts are about enough to buy 1 call. Of course these are LEAPS. Some predict that oil could go to $ 100 next year. That means MRO would be around $ 100/share. Nice profit. The down side: Oil comes down below $ 50 come Jan07. Your call will be worthless, and you will have to buy MRO at $55 (Your proceeds from the put are already used to buy calls which has no value). You break even at $ 52.50. Disclosure: I play that game, and this is not a recommendation to do the same.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (3155)	11/17/2005 9:46:46 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24225

Exxon, and the Implications of 8% Posted by Stuart Staniford on Thu Nov 17 at 2:44 AM EST Most of us thinking about peak oil have been aware for some time that the central uncertainty is the decline rate on fields in production (FIP). This dramatically affects when one believes peak will be, and seems to be the main difference between more pessimistic projections such as Chris Sebrowski's, and CERA's. It's also critically important in assessing the economic impact, since the faster total production declines, the harder it will be for the economy to adjust, and as we go further and further past peak, the fewer new projects there will be to add to the declining bulk of production. In the past, peak oil projections have used fairly low decline rates for FIP - 3%-6%. There are now several pieces of evidence that the FIP decline rate might be more like 8%. Adding that to Chris Sebrowski's list of new projects makes for a very rough ride: Production projection with 2005 ODAC Megaprojects plus various average decline rates of existing fields and the supply required to maintain "business as usual". There's more... (1656 words) \| Comments (15) \| Permalink theoildrum.com